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Opening Segment #3: |
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'High
& Mighty' |
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Monday,
June 15, 2009 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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SWM |
25.78 |
Schweitzer-Mauduit
International (SWM)
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CML |
15.23 |
Compellent
Technologies, Inc. (CML)
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Jim:
What the heck does
it take… to get onto
the new high list in
this Marcet… is
there even a new
high list?… how
about a miracle…
because there are
only a thimble full
of stocks on the
list of late… and
just a couple that
are big enough to
mention on Mad
Money… so, if you
are on this list,
you have got to be
pretty darn special…
you are the hottest
merchandise on the
Wall Street fashion
show… wouldn’t it be
nice to know how you
can crack onto a 52
week high… find
stocks that might be
heading to their
highs… and maybe
arrive at those
lofty heights… well
that is the subject
to tonight’s
edutainment… because
whenever, whenever
we are down big… I
like to accentuate
the positive… and if
not eliminate the
negative, then at
least internalize
it, go for Mr.
In-Between...
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See comments continued below...
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Jim's Charitable
Trust Alert -
Just happened:
* Just
BOUGHT new bank stock:
Bank of
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& just
sold
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Jim's
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Monday,
June 15, 2009
(Cont'd from
above)...
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Jim:
First, we take a
look to see what
stocks hit the 52
week high list last
week… if there are
any at all, there
happens to be a
handful… and then we
single out all the
traits that they
have in common… and
walla, you have got
a formula for a 52
week high… maybe it
is a formula that
some of your
companies could at
least sample… the
two stocks worth
mentioning from last
week that hit the 52
week high… they are
mouthfuls… one is
Schweitzer-Mauduit
International (SWM)…
and the other is
Compellent
Technologies, Inc.
(CML).
So what if anything
does Schweitzer
Mauduit which is a
cigarette paper
manufacturer… and a
storage network
company like
Compellent have in
common… what can
these couple
companies tell us
about the formula
for stock success.
First, it looks like
having a unique
niche really helps
make your company
competitive…
Schweitzer for
example, does not
just make cigarette
papers, it is the
largest maker of
specialty papers…
and is number one or
number two by Marcet
share in the United
States, Europe,
Latin America, and
China… serving 5 of
the largest
cigarette companies
in the world… that
is a pretty
compelling niche
Marcet.
Compellent also
operates in a
special niche… it is
a maker of storage
area networks, like
Brocade… which you
know we like very
much… or EMC, but
unlike them this
company focuses on
small to medium size
business’… companies
that may not be able
to afford the larger
storage technologies
from other
companies… this is
another red hot
area… focusing on
accounts that might
be too small for the
giants to care
about… but there are
a ton of those
little accounts…
that means that
Compellent has the
largest pool of
potential customers
of any of these
storage area network
companies.. as the
average deal is only
about $100,000...
relatively cheap
compared to larger
storage systems...
The second idea
besides that special
niche… I mean I
always find that it
is just incredible
that there would be
just this, they make
that paper… what a
interesting
business, right…
second thing that
you need, you need a
secular growth
driver… something
that powers thru
regardless of the
economies… and both
SWM and CML have
that… you would
think that the
global decline in
cigarette smoking
would be a negative
for Schweitzer
Mauduit… but it is
actually doing
well.. how could
that be… first since
about 74% of its
sales are from
outside the US, they
are with Phillip
Morris not Altria…
with Western Europe
as its largest
Marcet, it has got
that weak dollar on
its side… and the
second part of the
story though is that
not all cigarette
papers are created
equal… this is
incredibly
compelling…
Schweitzer Mauduit
makes the kind that
are more equal than
others… this is low
ignition propensity
paper… and that
makes cigarettes
more fire resistant…
and numerous states
and countries either
have laws requiring
that cigarette
makers use this
paper… I find this
ironic, fire
resistant paper for
a cigarette…
whatever… anyway, at
least they propose
this kind of rule…
and this company is
a winner off of
greater regulation
of cigarettes… can
you imagine… these
guys make a better
paper when you did
not even know such a
thing existed… that
is a fabulous niche
that has no economic
exposure to speak
of… so it does well
in this garden
variety
depression/recession…
the paper that is
fire resistant that
you have to light…
yeah, I want to be
in that niche.
Compellent’s secular
growth story is
completely
different… but still
powerful enough to
add its stock to its
52 week high list…
more and more
companies,
especially the
smaller companies
served by Compellent
need storage…
remember this is
storage, not like
the thing that they
stored in “Silence
of the Lambs”, this
is actually like
data… and they need
to be able to access
it and store it
within the same
network… which is
why the storage
Marcet is expected
to grow at just
under 10% a year
from now until
2012... with small
to medium size
enterprise storage…
Compellent‘s Marcet
the fastest growth
area… so, strong
growth in a niche
that it has the
strongest growth of…
the whole storage
business is growing
fast, and this end
is growing even
faster… Compellent
also has a bunch of
features in its
storage area network
technologies that
increase storage
capacity for
important
applications… making
searches faster,
more efficient,
complicated stuff..
but all you need to
know is that they
believe that there
tech could save
customers 50% on
their cooling power
and floor space,
data centers, big
issue… want to slim
them down, want to
make them cheaper…
the need for tech to
save money is not
going out of style
anytime soon.
Nope, that is not
all you need… this
is one tough hurdle
to get on that 52
week high list… it
is also important
that you have a
record of earnings
beats… Schweitzer
preannounce a big,
big upsize surprise…
saying that it
expected to earn
between .80 and .90
cents for the
quarter… remember,
that is the company
that makes fire
resistant fire
sticks… while the
only company
covering the stock
expected it to earn
.40 cents… the beat
came thanks to high
profit margins
caused by cost cuts
over the last three
years… higher
selling prices, and
lower cost
inflation… they can
raise the price of
fire resistant fire.
Compellent also
beats the streets
earnings
expectations by .03
cents when it
reported at the end
of April… the
company’s revenues
increased by 54%
over the previous
year… this company
is running circles
around the larger
storage companies
that serve bigger
companies.
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The Bottom Line!:
Do you want to join
the 52 week high
list… do you want to
find a company that
has what it takes to
be at the top of
this Marcet… where
there is just a
handful that make
it… then the company
had better bring
something unique to
the table… must
participate in
secular growth
Marcets… and have
beaten the numbers
handily in its most
recent quarter..
looks like
Schweitzer-Mauduit
(SWM)…
and
Compellent
Technologies (CML)
hit the trifecta…
but judging from the
slim pickings on the
list… everyone else
is going home empty
handed.
[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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