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  Opening Segment #1:
Buyer Beware:
Tech Driven
  Thursday, July 23, 2009
 
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
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Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

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[Beginning of Cramer's verbatim comments for this segment...]

Jim:
          
What a day… what a day… unbelievable… just keeps getting better and better for the bulls… while the wholesale slaughter of the bears keeps happening… yep, up 47 points for
the Nasdaq… up 12 consecutive days…now, I have to tell you… I would make bear stew again, but given the move that we have, frankly I am worried that the Department of Fish and Wildlife might lock me up for eating an endangered species… so what we are doing, of course, is settling for knocking the stuffings out of them… oh, I think we are in the bowels of the operation…  nasty.

 

But before we get irrationally exuberant and criticized by myriad detractors as being mindless bulls… let me give you a quick Miranda warning… many of you have seen gigantic profits in the span of two weeks time… I want you to think back to two weeks ago when you were despondent and miserable and hating watching me… now the market is… you might still hate watching me but you are watching me… the market is way over bought… people are throwing money at stocks… without even doing any homework right now… something that often happens in the teeth of the earnings season… when there is just not enough time to learn whether or not a stock is worth owning.

So what I am going to tell you right now… is a little anecdotal… even as I destroy this little polar bear… southern exposure… I want you to ring the register and take some of those profits off the table… maybe go buy a sweater or two.. even as it seems like a dynamite time to buy and it is so exciting… that is right, I am going to reiterate… do exactly what my late Mom always said to do when I was winning at the tables… was there gambling going on?… which is, go out Jimmy and buy a sweater with the profits… I am urging you to go buy a couple of them… I hate chasing.

Just as I tell you that there is always a better time to sell when the market is plummeting… I am now assuring you that I think there will be a better time to buy in the next few days… whoo, there I have given it… my lock in some profits, take something off of the table and go buy a sweater speech that I have to do every time that we have a run like this… let me explain a pattern that I have discerned… that could be incredibly important… important for you to take profits on… if President Obama regains his clout and starts pushing hard with the rest of his agenda… everyone today wrote him off because of the healthcare… I have to tell you, you cannot write this guy off… he is too darn popular.

Alright, let’s look at the streak that the tech stocks have had here…
the Nasdaq has now closed up 12 straight days… when you see something like that, you have got to take a step back… and ask yourself is there something going on bigger than all of the visible themes… the ones that I have talked about on this show endlessly… the low semi-conductor inventories, new product cycles based on the mobile internet, and valuations that just got too low… there is… I have figured it out… Washington does not care about tech… it is not trying to legislate tech out of its profits… it is not trying to handcuff tech into paying…. having higher costs.

That is right, I am telling you that tech is immune from President Obama… and more importantly Democratic Chieftain Nancy Pelosi… and that is why tech can go higher… I do not want to go on a Jeremiah against President Obama’s agenda… because I know that we have to undo the Bush’s administration legacy of companies constantly feeding at the Federal trough.. and we know that that was going on… remember, we used to have a government of, by, and for the corporation… but ladies and gentlemen, despite what the stock market is saying right now… we are indeed back in Lincoln mode… with a touch of class warfare… this is a government of, by and for the people… except for millionaires… I feel disenfranchised… and that means Washington has an agenda that is harmful to the earnings of a lot of companies… but not necessarily to tech.

Technology companies are not unionized… they cannot be hurt by card check… they are not about to be unionized… can’t be hurt by forced arbitration… I believe that is the next big battle ground… tech does not pollute… cap-n-trade does not really matter… tech companies are not much for pensions… or for help from the government with healthcare… these are businesses with mostly 401K’s and virtually no legacy pension plans… tech does not sell products to the government that increase the budget… like the defense contractors do… it does not sell products that make Medicare too expensive.. .like the drug stocks, the bio techs, and the HMO’s… and most important tech does not need a helping hand from the government… there is not even a scintilla of a hint of a bailout that is needed for any tech company… and no player in tech is too big to fail… we do not have to worry about Sheila Bair coming in and saying listen I am sorry we are not guaranteeing your loans… there are no loans.

And tech is not regulated by a government agency like the FCC… or the Justice Departments anti-trust division… although, periodically they go on a warpath against Intel… I believe that tech is basically immune to Washington… something hardly any other sector can say… and that means that the big boys are willing to pay more for the earnings of tech stocks… because Washington is not going to legislate them away… they know that they do not have to worry about waking up one morning and look at the front page of the New York Times, and finding out that there is some proposed piece of legislation that will kill tech stock profits… which is a concern for practically every other industry… think about it… the oil industry, the Telco industry, the credit card industry… nobody in Washington looks at profits in tech… as a means of taxing our way out of the deficit… the way that they salivate over the so called windfall profits of oil and gas companies.

Tech isn’t about to legislated out of existence like the coal and tobacco companies might be… so many companies fed at the Federal trough during the Bush administration… and they are now slowly being starved to death… few companies are as international as most tech… which often do more business in Asia than the United States… they can build stuff anywhere… so the can move it if the taxes get too high… they do not have pesky inexpensive work forces… and they do not have to hire anybody to make more money… in fact, they can fire at will… it does not seem to bother them at all.. that is the secret behind this 12 day rally in tech… there earnings are not determined by what the President says… or what Pelosi says… for tech it is all about the business pages… no Washington worries and that is something that money managers who want to sleep at night adore… it is why the
Intel (INTC), and the Cisco (CSCO*), and the Apple (AAPL), and the VMware (VMW), and the Oracle Corp. (ORCL), and the Google, Inc. (GOOG)
… not to mention the software companies like Allscripts Healthcare Solutions Inc. (MDRX)… or little semi guys like ON Semiconductor Corp. (ONNN) Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS), and TriQuint Semiconductor, Inc. (TQNT) can do well… those are all stocks that I have been recommending on the show.

By the way, I do think that Apple can go to $200 in the next few months… it is the most immune to Washington stock that I can find… unless they start taxing iPods… I want you to think about this non Washington halo tomorrow… if
the Nasdaq
is down… because Amazon.com (AMZN) reported disappointing earnings tonight… and yes, I still like Amazon, and I like the Zappos deal.

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

The Bottom Line!:     Here is the bottom line… tech can shine… simply because it is practically the only sector that is not touched by Obama or Pelosi’s agenda… what a multi year theme… could last 3 and half years… because you can bet this one… well let’s just say, until people catch on to what is really going on in Washington… will remain undiscovered… and the stock prices will go much higher… and yes, all I can tell you is, there will be a lot more stuffing knocked out of the bear.

 

[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]

Read Jim's next Segment here  

Market Results today:

Dow:  + 188

Nasdaq:  + 47

S&P 500:  + 22

See all of tonight's stocks mentioned
on Yahoo! Finance,
here...

 
 
 
   
 

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