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[Beginning of
Cramer's
verbatim
comments for
this segment...]
Note:
In this segment,
Jim places Irene
Rosenfeld, CEO
of Kraft at the
top of the
Mad Money Wall of Shame.
We are
continuing to
compile these
comments.
In
Getting
Back To Even,
the latest edition
to the Cramer
canon... #2 on the
best-seller list...
yeah, I tell you to
be aware of bogus
upside surprises...
You want to know
what a bogus upside
surprise really
looks like?...
Just yesterday, we
got one from a
totally iconic
American company,
with an unbelievably
awful management...
Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT)...
And that's the
subject of tonight's
Sell Block...
On Tuesday, after
the close, Kraft
reported the kind of
quarter that the
press calls "better
than expected." Yet,
surprisingly, the
stock was down
yesterday. This can
be confusing for
investors. You think
that the company
beat, you think it
raised guidance.
Isn't that what the
headlines are
saying?...
You can't go by the
headlines...
If you look beyond
the earnings per
share number, you
can tell that this
was actually a
worst-than-expected
quarter. When they
have these "bogus
beats," you know
what it makes me
think of?... (Jim
then played music,
with the song
"Evacuate The Dance
floor")... Right?...
Stop, this beat is
killing me...
Except, I think,
evacuate the Kraft
floor, these beats
are killing me...
And it's because of
this alleged "beat"
that we're
evacuating Kraft,
we're sticking it in
the Sell Block, and,
are you ready,
skee-Dad?... The
company's just awful
CEO, Irene
Rosenfeld, is now
officially on the
Wall of Shame...
First, let's take a
look at this bogus
beat...
Kraft exceeded the
Street's earnings
per share estimates
by 7 cents. But its
revenue fell by 6%.
The Street was only
looking for a 2%
decline. That's
miserable. This
makes me see this
"upside surprise" as
contrived. A real
upside surprise -
one that indicates
that business is
actually better than
we thought - comes
from
better-than-expected
revenue, the sales
line, the top
line... rather than
things like cost
cuts or buybacks...
This quarter was
about as tasty as
Velveeta, and
Velveeta is
specifically
designed to be eaten
after thermonuclear
war... hence this
nasty "Velveeta-mid"
(a pyramid built
with boxes of
Kraft's Velveeta
cheese), because
Velveeta's solid and
tasty as a brick.
Now, not only did
Kraft give us a
bogus beat, it also
came through with a
totally misleading
guidance boost too.
With just one
quarter left in
2009, Kraft "raised"
its full-year
earnings guidance by
4 cents. Remember,
that's after beating
the 3rd quarter
estimates by 7
cents.
So what was Kraft
really doing?...
It was effectively
guiding down for the
4th quarter...
despite headlines
like, "Kraft profit
falls but co. raises
outlook for year"...
That came from the
Associated Press.
The numbers implied
that Kraft will earn
41 cents in the 4th
quarter. That's 7
cents below what the
Street is expecting.
There's more going
on here than just
misleading
headlines.
Kraft is in terrible
shape. Its
fundamentals are
declining. And the
more I see it, the
more I think it's
botching its
attempted takeover
of Cadbury. Kraft is
losing market share
and, for this kind
of company, success
is all about the war
for shelf space in
the supermarket.
It's a slow war of
attrition, fought
for feet, and even
inches, of space
and, right now,
Kraft is losing.
According to
Nielsen, Kraft
gained or held
market share in only
34% of its U.S.
retail business.
That's down from 45%
a year ago. It has
gone from bad to
worse, people. If
you want to own a
food stock, go buy
General Mills Inc. (GIS)
or
Kellogg Co. (K).
Sell Kraft.
At this point, I'd
go so far as to say
that the bullish
thesis for Kraft
rests entirely on
its successful
buyout of Cadbury...
an acquisition I
don't even approve
of. I thought Kraft
should have gone
with a health food
stock like
The Hain Celestial Group (HAIN).
And it's looking
less and less likely
to me that Kraft
will be able to pull
this takeover off in
a way that's good
for Kraft
shareholders.
Kraft's initial bid
was rejected by
Cadbury, and now the
company has until
Monday to make a
formal offer. Given
the fact that the
stock - its stock -
has fallen since its
initial bid, and its
disappointing
results, I think the
deal is going to be
much harder to
execute than it
could have been.
Plus, Kraft has
tough conditions
that might simply
not allow it to
satisfy Cadbury
shareholders,
especially given the
good results that
Cadbury delivered in
late October. Let's
just say the aroma
of Cadbury, as
represented by this
delicious fondue,
can't disguise the
stink of Kraft
Velveeta fondue. I
don't think these
two necessarily mix.
There's a great
article in today's
Financial Times
about how Cadbury's
board met yesterday
to discuss Kraft's
results. Here's the
sentence that jumped
out at me... "Kraft
led people to
believe it would
have good results
and then it did not.
This could anger its
shareholders... they
would have to be
brought back
onside"... meaning,
in addition to
having to convince
Cadbury
shareholders,
Kraft's management
now actually will
have to convince its
own shareholders
that the deal is a
good idea.
Kraft has made
itself into, very
simply, a sell,
sell, sell... and
someone needs to
bear the blame for
the decline of this
once-proud American
institution, and
that person is none
other than Irene
Rosenfeld... who has
been Kraft's CEO
since June 26th of
2006. That's enough
time to make a
difference. At that
time, the stock was
at $31.
With Kraft now
trading at $27.03,
the stock's off 13%
since Rosenfeld took
over, and things
aren't improving.
They're getting
worse. Now I did
grant Rosenfeld
clemency back on
June 10th, even
though she'd been
nominated to a
position on the Wall
of Shame by many of
you homegamers.
That, in retrospect,
was a mistake, and
it's one that I am
now correcting. In
America, double
jeopardy is illegal,
but not in
Cramerica. We're
taking a distorted
page from Honest
Abe's second
inaugural, with
malice toward all
and charity for
none... especially
none who produce
bogus upside
surprises, where we
want to evacuate the
Kraft floor with
phony guidance
boosts... putting
Irene Rosenfeld on
the
Wall of Shame,
where she belongs.
Hopefully, she'll
resign. It would be
the best thing she
could do for the
stock.
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
Bottom
Line:
Don't be fooled by
the headlines.
Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT)
reported a
disappointing
quarter. It gave
disappointing
guidance. These
bogus beats are
killing me. Evacuate
the Kraft floor
right now.
[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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