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[Beginning of
Cramer's
verbatim
comments for
this segment...]
Jim:
Hey, we can have
more than one
rolling bull
market going
on... at the
same, why not?
And, tonight, I
want to
highlight a
second nascent
bull... This
time, it's in
shipping,
courtesy of a
dramatic
resurgence in
global trade...
This shipping
sector, like the
concomitant
agricultural
bull market we
outlined
earlier, just
began to move a
couple of weeks
ago with the
turn in day
rates for all
kinds of
vessels... day
rates being the
key metrics to
determine if the
group should
trade higher...
how much it
costs to rent a
ship for a day.
The companies
that transfer
solid goods...
those are known
as the dry bulk
container
companies...
take commodities
like coal, iron
ore and grain,
and dump them in
huge ships...
are on fire!
They are
sizzling... as
we can gauge
from last week's
huge rise in the
Baltic Dry
Freight Index,
which is
continuing
today... That is
a fantastic
measure of world
trade. The index
just keeps going
higher and
higher. It's
very "Energizer
bunny" like...
At the same time,
the oil tanker
stocks... a totally
different class of
shipping company,
but in the same
sector... have been
on an amazing tear
of late... something
that's remarkable,
given how poorly the
business was
performing just this
summer. Whenever you
see these two groups
soaring, the market
is trying to tell
you that, like it or
not, worldwide
commerce is coming
back. The bears will
be wrong... the
global recovery is
for real.
And tonight, we're
going "Off The
Charts," because
we've got to find a
way to play this
incredible shipping
rally...
I want you in it,
okay. When they were
hot, wow, did we
love them. When they
were cold, we hated
them... With the top
dry bulk carrier and
the top tanker
company hardly
moving, we're early
and we've got to be
ready... I say we
pull the trigger...
I want to start by
taking a looking at
the technicals,
because these two
groups have been
breaking out and,
when that happens,
it pays to consult
the chartists to see
if they think the
stocks have more
room to run, or if
they're predicting a
pullback.
Remember, we don't
necessarily agree
with the chart
watchers, but we
acknowledge that a
whole lot of
investors follow the
charts, and we're
not getting into
this group without
"chart protection,"
so this is something
you need to be aware
of.
What are the best
shipping plays from
a technical
perspective?... The
best dry bulk and
the best tanker
charts?...
We're going to our
go-to guy, Dan
Fitzpatrick. He's a
colleague at
RealMoney.com,
the paid site of
TheStreet.com, and
he's saying it's
Diana Shipping (DSX),
the dry bulk shipper
with the best chart.
And yeah, old
friend, Cramer-fave,
Nordic American Tanker (NAT)...
natty-dread, which I
was dreading for a
while, but I'm not
anymore... is the
best tanker play.
Fitz thinks both of
these stocks are
going higher, but
they could pull back
before that happens.
More on that in a
moment...
Alright, why don't
we take a look first
at Diana Shipping...
Oh, look at that,
it's a weekly
chart... this is a
weekly chart... You
can see that this
stock has been
trading in a tight
range... between $12
and $15... $12 and
$15 since July. I
told you you haven't
missed anything yet.
These two lines are
called "Bollinger
Bands"... We had
some John Bollinger
work on the show for
an "Off The Charts"
about a month ago.
It's a technical
tool that measures
volatility. The
narrower these two
get, the less
volatile the stock.
Before Diana's
recent breakout,
these bands had
gotten increasingly
tighter. That's
reflecting the
lowest volatility
this stock has ever
seen... What does
that mean? It means
traders have become
very passive... it
means they couldn't
care less about the
stock... It means
that it's the tail
end of a bear
market.
Fitz thinks that the
latest breakout
reflects a
"volatility
expansion"... his
term... but that's
where traders get
more aggressive, and
the price swings
become more
exaggerated. Even
better, this is not
chaotic
volatility... the
stock jumping up and
down like that
nonsense... uh uh,
not an oscillator
like it's a house or
something...
Fitzpatrick believes
this volatility is
"directional," and
the direction is up,
which means Diana's
stock has the
potential to
explode...
On the other hand,
when we look at the
daily chart of
Diana,
Fitzpatrick... he
grows more
cautious... The
stock is now 21%
above its 50-day
moving average, and
has become what he
calls
"overbought"... This
move has made it
overbought. That
means it's moved up
too far, too fast,
and could be due for
a fall...
In Fitz's opinion,
Diana could be a buy
right here, but he
wants it to come
back... he wants it
to pull back to $15,
okay... that's his
ideal price. And,
you know what? He
says, short-term,
the darn stock isn't
going to work... He
thinks this stock is
going to stall here,
because it's just
too hot... I get
that...
Just tonight, a
competitor,
DryShips, Inc. (DRYS),
is taking advantage
of the strength that
it's been
experiencing... very
similar to this...
and it's selling a
bond that's
convertible into
common stock... Do
you know that stock
is down 7% in
post-market
trading?... So, Fitz
may be onto
something short- and
long-term.
How about the rest
of the oil tanker
plays?...
NAT... Herb
Johhannsen... Fitz
is more bullish
about NAT... Nordic
American was
steadily trending
downward ever since
June... step by
step, inch by inch,
slowly, NAT fell...
And, everytime it
would rally up to
its 50-day moving
average, the stock
got clobbered,
annihilated... look
at this...
The sell at the
moving 50-day
average had been
flawless... right up
until last week... I
told you this was a
nascent bull
market... where we
got a high-volume
breakout. Remember,
volume is like a
polygraph for
technicians... Lots
of volume... right
here, that's the
volume... see it
spike? Look at
this... it's doing
nothing... doldrums,
doldrums... boom!
That spike in volume
is telling you... it
says that move's
truthful. And, now
that Nordic
American's 50-day
moving average is
now trading higher,
Fitz thinks it will
now define the
bottom. This one's
done going down!
Wow... given that
this key moving
average is at $29.50
right now, less than
a dollar below the
stock's current
price, Fitz thinks
this one's a great
one to buy. He says
little to no
downside risk!
How about the
fundamentals?... The
technicals are
strong. What do we
think?...
Okay, for the dry
bulk shippers, we
had liked Diana
until we interviewed
the company's CEO,
back on November 2nd
of 2007. We were
"all in" tankers...
and he came on and
told us that,
listen, we were
nuts... the rates
were not
sustainable... he
nailed it. We told
you to get out of
these things nine
ways to Sunday... At
the moment, the dry
bulk rate was at
$111,000 a day. It
declined to $10,000
a day in the 4th
quarter of 2008. At
the time, Diana was
at $42.92. Do you
know, that's about
150% above its
current price? But
now these rates are
coming back...
rising a remarkable
30% just last week
alone... and they're
not done going
higher... which
means, neither is
Diana. The dry bulk
shippers are plays
on the resurgence of
world trade,
especially trade
with China, as these
companies haul the
commodities that the
Chinese communists
can't get enough
of...
Port congestion is
on the rise in
China, thanks to
increased demand for
seaborne coal and
iron ore... the
commodities that are
needed to feed the
rapidly-growing
Chinese steel
industry.
Diana Shipping...
let's get that chart
of Diana Shipping up
here for a second...
reported a stellar
quarter last
Tuesday, okay... It
has a fleet of 21
ships as well as the
pristine balance
sheet that could
allow it to acquire
nine more. Why do I
want to show this
(chart) to you
again? Because I
don't want you to
think you missed
anything. We got you
out right about here
(as Jim points up to
the ceiling, above
the screen that's
showing the chart),
okay... and then
we're getting back
in right here
(pointing to the
bottom of the chart
line)...
You can't beat that!
That's important,
because financing is
tight in this
business now, but
Diana has the money
to grow its fleet
and, as dry bulk
rates rise, the
company could bring
back its dividend,
which was suspended
after the 4th
quarter of 2008, in
order to build cash
for potential
acquisitions. The
shipping stocks have
historically been
fabulous when it
comes to dividends.
It gets some
gigantic yields when
business is good.
Diana will be no
exception. It
suspended the
dividend it
typically paid out
of nearly all of its
distributable cash
flow, and it had it.
Okay, now as much as
I like DSX and the
dry bulk shipping
plays, they cannot
hold a candle - ooh,
this is a candle
chart - to Nordic
American Tanker...
Rates for "Suez Max"
tankers... I use
that term to show
you how smart I
am... rose nearly
30% last week. And
NAT operates a fleet
of 14 Suez Max
tankers. That means
they can go through
the Suez (Canal)...
Demand for oil
around the world is
on the rise too...
and we know that
from soaring crude
prices... but the
main reason to go
with the tanker
stocks and NAT has
to do with a
decision that the
Chinese government
made last week, that
no one was paying
any attention to...
except for followers
of Chairman Mao and
us... which is the
decision to ban all
single-hull oil
tankers, effective
January 1st. Nobody
expected the
People's Republic
would actually care
about the
environment... and
actually ban these
ships... they
surprise. Maybe
they're kinder and
gentler than we
think. And soon,
only double-hulled
tankers will be able
to do business
there. That's good
news for NAT. It's
fleet is made up
entirely of
double-hulled ships.
I've championed
natty-dread (i.e.,
NAT) before as a
terrific dividend
play, including in
my book,
Getting
Back To Even...
but, last week, the
company drastically
cut its payout...
Well guess what
happened?... The
stock is up since
then. That's a major
show of strength. We
have long been
behind Nordic
American Tanker
because of its
strong balance sheet
and low costs,
generous dividend
policy... every
dollar they make,
they pay out... they
don't have any debt
to speak of.
As rates rise, and
NAT's ships come
online, its dividend
is going to come
back... it's going
to roar back...
Plus, NAT has much
more exposure to
spot rates than
Diana... even though
they're in different
markets. What this
means is that, if
you believe in the
resurgence of global
trade, NAT gives you
more potential
upside than Diana,
which has chartered
out a greater
proportion of its
ships at rates that
are locked in.
Here's the bottom
line of the
charts... the bottom
line of the
fundamentals...
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
The Bottom
Line!:
The shipping
stocks... both of
the dry bulk and
tanker variety...
are now
en fuego!
Dan Fitzpatrick
likes
Diana Shipping (DSX)
and
Nordic American Tanker (NAT)
as the best ways to
play each industry,
based on technicals.
I have hated this
Diana! I'm
going positive for
the first time with
Diana... I
think he's dead
right on that one...
And, NAT... I should
have left it
earlier. I
never did.
It's a raging buy.
DSX is more stable.
I think NAT has more
upside. And
don't forget how
attractive the
dividends I'm
expecting from these
companies could be
when you compare
them to any other
asset class.
Put simply, Diana
and NAT were made
for each other, and
made for you.
[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
*Note:
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