Kindle DX

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
   
   
  Opening Segment #2:
Voice of Profits?
  Friday, March 19, 2010
 
 

   
 

   Update! :: Just bought new position in Stanley Black & Decker - SWK!  
   (and just locked in gains and sold all of the Chevron - CVX - position) 
See Jim's entire Charitable Trust Portfolio here >>

 
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

SONS

2.56

Sonus Networks, Inc. (SONS)

 

 


[Beginning of Cramer's verbatim comments for this segment...]

Jim:
       
On Mad Money, we've talked about the huge investment opportunity in the stocks that help internet providers speed up their networks. We've told you about companies that improve the transmission of video... that help carriers expand their bandwidth... and that make up the backbone of the
internet tsunami... These stocks have all been red-hot. We've given you stocks that help improve texting, that help manage networks...

But you know, there's one area that we've totally neglected when it comes to telco networks...


...and it's because it's so old-fashioned. I'm talking about voice...

 

I know, I know... with my kids... actually speaking on the phone is a terrible thing... It's all text... so does everybody else. People do, though, still use phones... they still use wireline phones. I know it's old-fashioned, but I've actually seen it done. People, like, speak to each other... it's incredible. I think there's a speculative opportunity here... one we've been missing. It's a theme that's very real, and it's connecting the old world to the new... connecting legacy telephone networks with modern... what's known as "internet protocol" or IP ones... and making the transition seamless, so there's no time lag, and voice quality's just as good as the old-fashioned legacy circuit-switched public networks.

Telephone companies are spending fortunes on upgrading their networks... but, unlike say, Hong Kong, which we had on last night, America is still full of these old legacy networks that need to connect with the more modern ones... a lot of copper in the system.

And that's why we like... a new name, everybody... but remember, it is Speculative Friday... We like
Sonus Networks, Inc. (SONS)...

Now this stock is as speculative as it comes... It's at $2.57. A $700 million market cap. Sonus makes the equipment that allows carriers and service providers to transform their old-fashioned voice networks into modern, scalable IP ones... and to seamlessly connect the old network with the new generation without diminishing voice quality which, by the way, it would without Sonus. It's a pure play on what's called "voice IP infrastructure."

Basically, this company's flagship product is called the GSX 9000... meeting a gateway... it serves as a bridge between legacy circuit-based networks, and modern internet-based networks. The product minimizes delay. That enhances voice quality. And it scales to the very large configurations that are required by these major, major telco companies.

It's got 10 years of experience helping customers to migrate to modern IP networks. It's not some fly-by-night firm that just started last week. And, every day, more than a billion IP voice minutes are managed through Sonus' networking products... 50 countries... an international company.

It may be speculative... it is, it is, okay... but it's got real customers.
AT&T (T), Global Crossing (GLBC), L-3 Communications (LLL), Level 3 (LVLT), which you know we're warming up to, Verizon (VZ), Qwest (Q), which we recommended yesterday and I still like... and none of these customers represent more than 10% of its consolidated revenues in 2009, so it's not too dependent on any one company.

Now, this one's been through three restructurings in the last year. It's had a problem. You don't get to $2 for no reason. It's been able to lower its costs... it had one in December of 2008. It had another restructuring in January of 2009. And one in August of 2009. And, you know, those were all received negatively.

But now it's got a cost structure that's so improved that I think this stock can go higher when it reports.


Now the last quarter was very good... February 26th... looked great. They earned 4 cents a share... The Street was expecting them to break even... and it was on sales of $69 million... $8 million better than what the analysts were expecting. A lot of people think, a $2 stock, they're losing money... they're not! The book-to-bill ratio... it measured how strong their future is... was over 1.0 for the quarter. And for all of 2009... so it's got more orders than it can deliver.

But the company did something that you know is painful... it gave disappointing guidance for 2010. But, given its improved cost structure, and the economic recovery that I see happening, along with the fact that it's got some big new products coming, including a next-generation internet protocol communications platform, that will integrate all sorts of different functions like call control, service logic, processing, security... into a single cost-effective network element... I think it's going to penetrate enterprises. I think big companies are going to do it. Remember, "enterprise" is Wall Street speak for big business.

I think the future is looking brighter and brighter for Sonus.


Why speculative?... Well, you've got to have a stomach for the risk here. You've got to have a stomach for the risk involved, because it competes against
Cisco (CSCO*)... it competes against Ericsson (ERIC)... it competes against Nokia (NOK)... it competes against Alcatel-Lucent (ALU). Plus, Sonus is totally at the mercy of telco carriers' spending. So, if Verizon slows it down... and given the complexity of its products... it can get hit with serious revenue problems, making the future hard to predict.

You know what?... I'm not worried about the downside here...


And there's a particular reason why, and it's not necessarily because business is stronger. It's because it has $1.53 in cash!... 63% of the stock price, for heaven's sake. Nor am I concerned with the fact that it's flirting with its 52-week high... This is a $2.57 name. It traded over $8 in 2007... And, during the tech bubble, I remember this one when I was at my old hedge fund where I used to run money... $500 million... this stock traded at $100... $100... I don't think it'll go back to those heights. But even if it only trades up to $3.50... hey, take a 36% gain, right?...

There's no reason to chase, though. We do Speculation Friday for a reason. Because the weekend provides a mandatory, what we call a "Taft-Hartley style" cooling off period. It forces you to do
do the homework... to do some thinking before you buy.

Here's the bottom line on
Sonus Networks, Inc. (SONS)...

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

Despite the strong competition and the downbeat guidance... but thanks to its huge cash hoard, and well-diversified business, I think the downside with Sonus Networks, Inc. (SONS) is very limited. Meanwhile, the upside - driven by telco carriers that are looking to control costs and improve their networks - could be substantial... especially with a stronger economy. This one's worth taking up the speculative slot in your portfolio. Too cheap to ignore, yet trading like it's bleeding red ink and it's at death's door.

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[verbatim recap]

[end of segment]


*Note:  An asterisk next to a stock indicates that Jim owns it currently for
his charitable trust.  If you are interested in a particular stock, Jim Cramer recommends that you always do the homework on each stock, and that you wait at least one trading week after his show recommendation to evaluate whether it is a good stock trade or investment for you. 

To help you with this, we have created an ONGOING STOCK PORTFOLIO which provides the changing stock prices for each major stock recommendation after 1 week, 1 month and 1 quarter for you here >> 

Read Jim's next Segment here  

Market Results today:

Dow:  - 37

Nasdaq:  - 17

S&P 500:  - 6

See all of tonight's stocks mentioned
on Yahoo! Finance,
here...

 
 
 

   
 
   
 

 

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