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[Beginning of
Cramer's
verbatim
comments for
this segment...]
Jim:
On Mad Money,
we've talked
about the huge
investment
opportunity in
the stocks that
help internet
providers speed
up their
networks. We've
told you about
companies that
improve the
transmission of
video... that
help carriers
expand their
bandwidth... and
that make up the
backbone of the
internet tsunami...
These stocks
have all been
red-hot. We've
given you stocks
that help
improve texting,
that help manage
networks...
But you know,
there's one area
that we've
totally
neglected when
it comes to
telco
networks...
...and it's
because it's so
old-fashioned.
I'm talking
about voice...
I know, I
know... with my
kids... actually
speaking on the
phone is a
terrible
thing... It's
all text... so
does everybody
else. People do,
though, still
use phones...
they still use
wireline phones.
I know it's
old-fashioned,
but I've
actually seen it
done. People,
like, speak to
each other...
it's incredible.
I think there's
a speculative
opportunity
here... one
we've been
missing. It's a
theme that's
very real, and
it's connecting
the old world to
the new...
connecting
legacy telephone
networks with
modern... what's
known as
"internet
protocol" or IP
ones... and
making the
transition
seamless, so
there's no time
lag, and voice
quality's just
as good as the
old-fashioned
legacy
circuit-switched
public networks.
Telephone
companies are
spending
fortunes on
upgrading their
networks... but,
unlike say, Hong
Kong, which we
had on last
night, America
is still full of
these old legacy
networks that
need to connect
with the more
modern ones... a
lot of copper in
the system.
And that's why
we like... a new
name,
everybody... but
remember, it is
Speculative
Friday... We
like
Sonus
Networks, Inc.
(SONS)...
Now this stock
is as
speculative as
it comes... It's
at $2.57. A $700
million market
cap. Sonus makes
the equipment
that allows
carriers and
service
providers to
transform their
old-fashioned
voice networks
into modern,
scalable IP
ones... and to
seamlessly
connect the old
network with the
new generation
without
diminishing
voice quality
which, by the
way, it would
without Sonus.
It's a pure play
on what's called
"voice IP
infrastructure."
Basically, this
company's
flagship product
is called the
GSX 9000...
meeting a
gateway... it
serves as a
bridge between
legacy
circuit-based
networks, and
modern
internet-based
networks. The
product
minimizes delay.
That enhances
voice quality.
And it scales to
the very large
configurations
that are
required by
these major,
major telco
companies.
It's got 10
years of
experience
helping
customers to
migrate to
modern IP
networks. It's
not some
fly-by-night
firm that just
started last
week. And, every
day, more than a
billion IP voice
minutes are
managed through
Sonus'
networking
products... 50
countries... an
international
company.
It may be
speculative...
it is, it is,
okay... but it's
got real
customers.
AT&T (T),
Global
Crossing (GLBC),
L-3 Communications (LLL),
Level 3
(LVLT),
which you know
we're warming up
to,
Verizon
(VZ),
Qwest (Q),
which we
recommended
yesterday and I
still like...
and none of
these customers
represent more
than 10% of its
consolidated
revenues in
2009, so it's
not too
dependent on any
one company.
Now, this one's
been through
three
restructurings
in the last
year. It's had a
problem. You
don't get to $2
for no reason.
It's been able
to lower its
costs... it had
one in December
of 2008. It had
another
restructuring in
January of 2009.
And one in
August of 2009.
And, you know,
those were all
received
negatively.
But now it's got
a cost structure
that's so
improved that I
think this stock
can go higher
when it reports.
Now the last
quarter was very
good... February
26th... looked
great. They
earned 4 cents a
share... The
Street was
expecting them
to break even...
and it was on
sales of $69
million... $8
million better
than what the
analysts were
expecting. A lot
of people think,
a $2 stock,
they're losing
money... they're
not! The
book-to-bill
ratio... it
measured how
strong their
future is... was
over 1.0 for the
quarter. And for
all of 2009...
so it's got more
orders than it
can deliver.
But the company
did something
that you know is
painful... it
gave
disappointing
guidance for
2010. But, given
its improved
cost structure,
and the economic
recovery that I
see happening,
along with the
fact that it's
got some big new
products coming,
including a
next-generation
internet
protocol
communications
platform, that
will integrate
all sorts of
different
functions like
call control,
service logic,
processing,
security... into
a single
cost-effective
network
element... I
think it's going
to penetrate
enterprises. I
think big
companies are
going to do it.
Remember,
"enterprise" is
Wall Street
speak for big
business.
I think the
future is
looking brighter
and brighter for
Sonus.
Why
speculative?...
Well, you've got
to have a
stomach for the
risk here.
You've got to
have a stomach
for the risk
involved,
because it
competes against
Cisco
(CSCO*)...
it competes
against
Ericsson (ERIC)...
it competes
against
Nokia (NOK)...
it competes
against
Alcatel-Lucent (ALU).
Plus, Sonus is
totally at the
mercy of telco
carriers'
spending. So, if
Verizon slows it
down... and
given the
complexity of
its products...
it can get hit
with serious
revenue
problems, making
the future hard
to predict.
You know
what?... I'm not
worried about
the downside
here...
And there's a
particular
reason why, and
it's not
necessarily
because business
is stronger.
It's because it
has $1.53 in
cash!... 63% of
the stock price,
for heaven's
sake. Nor am I
concerned with
the fact that
it's flirting
with its 52-week
high... This is
a $2.57 name. It
traded over $8
in 2007... And,
during the tech
bubble, I
remember this
one when I was
at my old hedge
fund where I
used to run
money... $500
million... this
stock traded at
$100... $100...
I don't think
it'll go back to
those heights.
But even if it
only trades up
to $3.50... hey,
take a 36% gain,
right?...
There's no
reason to chase,
though. We do
Speculation
Friday for a
reason. Because
the weekend
provides a
mandatory, what
we call a
"Taft-Hartley
style" cooling
off period. It
forces you to do
do the homework...
to do some
thinking before
you buy.
Here's the
bottom line on
Sonus
Networks, Inc.
(SONS)...
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
 
Despite the strong
competition and the
downbeat guidance...
but thanks to its
huge cash hoard, and
well-diversified
business, I think
the downside with
Sonus Networks,
Inc. (SONS)
is very limited.
Meanwhile, the
upside - driven by
telco carriers that
are looking to
control costs and
improve their
networks - could be
substantial...
especially with a
stronger economy.
This one's worth
taking up the
speculative slot in
your portfolio. Too
cheap to ignore, yet
trading like it's
bleeding red ink and
it's at death's
door.
[verbatim recap]
[end of segment]
*Note:
An asterisk next to
a stock indicates
that Jim owns it
currently for
his charitable trust.
If you are
interested in a
particular stock,
Jim Cramer
recommends that you
always do
the homework
on each stock, and
that you wait at
least one trading
week after his show
recommendation to
evaluate whether it
is a good stock
trade or investment
for you.
To help you with
this, we have
created an ONGOING
STOCK PORTFOLIO
which provides the
changing stock
prices for each
major stock
recommendation after
1 week, 1 month and
1 quarter for you
here
>>
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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