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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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TRN* |
18.34 |
Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN*)
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Jim:
Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN*),
a manufacturer of
railcars, barges and
our favorite part of
the business, towers
for windmills, is a
broken stock... It's
a victim of forced
selling by hedge
funds gone wild that
bought TRN as part
of a big energy bet,
and then had to
liquidate, as
everything energy
fell apart.
Actually, today was
the first day we saw
a lift in that
group...
Back on October
13th, I said this
one was a victim of
hedge funds gone
wild, when TRN's
stock was at
$22.63... and told
you it would go
lower as the hedge
funds kept
selling... and, boy,
have they ever...
TRN's down another
19.1% since I talked
about the feral
hedge funds tearing
it to pieces...
A damaged stock,
sure... but damaged
goods? Not
necessarily. A
broken stock does
not mean we're
looking at a broken
company...
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Continued below...
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Wednesday,
October 29, 2008
(Cont'd from
above)...
The reason I
like
Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN*)
is not
that it's just a
railcar play...
The railcar
market is
generally
weak... I like
it because...
well, you know,
the flat cars
aren't bad
either... I
shouldn't just
damn the whole
industry... But,
I have to tell
you, what I
really like
about it is
because of its
wind business,
alright... Its
wind business is
very strong...
or, at least,
was going into
this quarter.
TRN is a company
that's changing
its stripes...
In 2000,
railcars made up
54% of its
operating
profit. Now
that's down to
30%. Energy
equipment -
which includes
the wind tower
business - has
gone from 4% of
the operating
profit here, to
12%...
Eventually, I
believe, the
wind tower
business will
outstrip the
railcar.
Today TRN
reported, and we
need an
update...
Fortunately, we
got the chance
to talk to
Timothy Wallace,
TRN's chairman,
president and
CEO, about the
quarter, about
the prospects,
and about what
we think the
stock is... The
question is, is
it this... all
aboard!... or is
it that...
(sound of
trainwreck)...
So let's go
right to Mr.
Wallace...
Mr. Wallace...
to me, it looks
like the quarter
was about as
close to a
blowout as we're
possibly going
to expect. Where
did you think
you hit it out
of the park in
this quarter,
because the
numbers were
much better than
expected?...
Jim's comments
AFTER the interview:
When we talk
about valuations
in companies,
you have to
understand
what's known as
macro... the
whole world...
what the world
look like. The
world is in
chaos...
Companies cannot
get the
financing to be
able to build
the turbines...
to be able to
order the
turbines... They
can't get the
financing to be
able to order
more railcars...
So that's the
macro. The micro
is that this
stock acts as if
they are going
to have gigantic
losses. I just
can't see that
happening. At
the same time,
jeez... you
know, could it
go down 10-15%
just on what
he's talking
about?
Absolutely.
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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