Opening Segment #3:  

'On Track?'

CEO Interview

Timothy Wallace, CEO

 
Wednesday, October 29, 2008  
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

TRN*

18.34

Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN*)


 

Jim:       Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN*), a manufacturer of railcars, barges and our favorite part of the business, towers for windmills, is a broken stock... It's a victim of forced selling by hedge funds gone wild that bought TRN as part of a big energy bet, and then had to liquidate, as everything energy fell apart. Actually, today was the first day we saw a lift in that group...

Back on October 13th, I said this one was a victim of hedge funds gone wild, when TRN's stock was at $22.63... and told you it would go lower as the hedge funds kept selling... and, boy, have they ever... TRN's down another 19.1% since I talked about the feral hedge funds tearing it to pieces...

A damaged stock, sure... but damaged goods? Not necessarily. A broken stock does not mean we're looking at a broken company...

       
                                                 

Continued below...     

 

Market Results today:

Dow:   -74

Nasdaq +7

S&P 500:  -10

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Wednesday, October 29, 2008
(Cont'd from above)...

The reason I like Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN*) is not that it's just a railcar play... The railcar market is generally weak... I like it because... well, you know, the flat cars aren't bad either... I shouldn't just damn the whole industry... But, I have to tell you, what I really like about it is because of its wind business, alright... Its wind business is very strong... or, at least, was going into this quarter.

TRN is a company that's changing its stripes...

In 2000, railcars made up 54% of its operating profit. Now that's down to 30%. Energy equipment - which includes the wind tower business - has gone from 4% of the operating profit here, to 12%... Eventually, I believe, the wind tower business will outstrip the railcar.

Today TRN reported, and we need an update...

Fortunately, we got the chance to talk to Timothy Wallace, TRN's chairman, president and CEO, about the quarter, about the prospects, and about what we think the stock is... The question is, is it this... all aboard!... or is it that... (sound of trainwreck)...

So let's go right to Mr. Wallace...

Mr. Wallace... to me, it looks like the quarter was about as close to a blowout as we're possibly going to expect. Where did you think you hit it out of the park in this quarter, because the numbers were much better than expected?...

Jim's comments AFTER the interview:     When we talk about valuations in companies, you have to understand what's known as macro... the whole world... what the world look like. The world is in chaos... Companies cannot get the financing to be able to build the turbines... to be able to order the turbines... They can't get the financing to be able to order more railcars... So that's the macro. The micro is that this stock acts as if they are going to have gigantic losses. I just can't see that happening. At the same time, jeez... you know, could it go down 10-15% just on what he's talking about?    Absolutely.

Read Jim's next Segment here  
    

 

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