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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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AEM |
28.57 |
Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM)
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Jim:
If I had hair, I'd
be tearing it out...
I mean, what the
heck is wrong with
gold?... I told you
it would be a safe
haven in the current
chaos... that it'd
be insurance against
everything falling
apart... Instead,
gold itself has
fallen apart... with
Agnico-Eagle (AEM),
our favorite gold
play, down from
$68.32 on September
22nd... oh man,
where I said you
should own a gold
stock... to $28
today. That's a 58%
decline... It missed
its quarter too by 2
cents.
Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX)
also had a
disappointing
quarter. The whole
cohort's out of
control. The price
of gold itself has
fallen from $897 an
ounce to $738 an
ounce since
September 22nd.
Oh man... Well,
we've got to do some
eating, right... You
know what we have to
do (eating crow)...
I'm eating
gold-plated crow
tonight...
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Continued below...
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Thursday,
October 30, 2008
(Cont'd from
above)...
We thought gold
would be a safe
haven, right...
we were dead
wrong. But, for
it to work...
why didn't it
work?...
It didn't work
because you need
inflation, and
the problem is
that we're in a
deflationary
environment, as
assets are being
liquidated all
over, homes are
going down in
value... Those
are all
deflationary
things that
really... plus,
gold futures are
being sold off
to meet margin
calls...
Everything's
going wrong with
gold...
Gold also turned
out to be more
cyclical than we
thought... The
credit crisis is
causing jewelry
manufacturers to
hold less
inventory.
They're buying
less gold!
Owning gold as a
safe haven
clearly didn't
work. I was
wrong. That's
why I broke out
the gold crow...
I'll happily
admit it...
Happily, of
course, because
as long-time
viewers know, I
completely and
utterly disdain
myself...
That said, I
think we're two
quarters away
from a gold
explosion...
and, right now,
everyone hates
it...
Actually, right
now, I could
come out here
and say that I'm
"early"... I
hear people say
that all the
time and I just
think that there
ought to be a
little bug
underneath them
saying, "liar,
liar, pants on
fire"... but,
no... I'm not
saying I was
early. I was
just wrong...
and making the
prices of gold
and gold stock,
I think, are
going to look
very cheap right
now, in maybe
six months...
I think we'll
see a worldwide
panic by
governments that
will get us out
of this
deflationary
spiral. And, if
the European
Central Bank
cuts next
week... as I
sure hope they
do... and cuts
big... you're
going to see a
huge rally in
gold, which is
why I would own
some right
here...
You can't take
my word for it
though, because
I was so
completely
wrong. But, if
you did think...
okay, Cramer was
wrong at $68
but, in the
$20s, maybe he's
right... which
gold play should
you do?
Should you be in
Agnico-Eagle (AEM)?...
In the quarter
they just
reported, their
cash costs were
about $240 an
ounce, compared
to $113 an ounce
the quarter
before. Now,
some of that is
the result of
lower by-product
revenues. We saw
this too with
Yamana Gold Inc.
(AUY)...
Lower zinc,
silver can
copper prices...
But AEM's gold
production also
looked to be
lighter than
expected for the
quarter, and the
company said
gold production
for the year
should come in
at 300,000
ounces. That's
the low end of
its guidance.
Boy, did I screw
this one up.
I want to know
if AEM can turn
its cash costs
around, and be a
worthwhile play
going forward...
So we're
bringing on Sean
Boyd... he's
AEM's CEO... to
talk about
what's going on
at his company.
Mr. Boyd,
welcome to Mad
Money...
Jim's comments
AFTER the interview:
Look... I
know you can't
trust me on
this... because
I got this
wrong. You
have to go do
your own
homework...
you have to say,
listen... they
were real high,
and now they've
come down a
lot... You
heard what he
says... this is
a stock that's
on the come.
They have a lot
of new mines
opening.
You know that
everytime people
open up a new
mine, things go
wrong... they
don't get the
right numbers...
But how about
looking at it
like this...
If you're like I
am, and you're
thinking that
the world is
printing money
in order to get
out of this jam,
you know that
sometime in the
next 18 months,
people are going
to start
worrying about
inflation again.
So maybe you
sock it in in
the mid-$20s...
and you sell it
where I told you
to buy it...
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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