Opening Segment #3:  

'Midas Touch?'

CEO Interview
Sean Boyd, CEO

 
Thursday, October 30, 2008  
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

AEM

28.57

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM)


 

Jim:       If I had hair, I'd be tearing it out...

I mean, what the heck is wrong with gold?... I told you it would be a safe haven in the current chaos... that it'd be insurance against everything falling apart... Instead, gold itself has fallen apart... with
Agnico-Eagle (AEM), our favorite gold play, down from $68.32 on September 22nd... oh man, where I said you should own a gold stock... to $28 today. That's a 58% decline... It missed its quarter too by 2 cents.

Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) also had a disappointing quarter. The whole cohort's out of control. The price of gold itself has fallen from $897 an ounce to $738 an ounce since September 22nd.

Oh man... Well, we've got to do some eating, right... You know what we have to do (eating crow)... I'm eating gold-plated crow tonight...

       
                                                 

Continued below...     

 

Market Results today:

Dow +889

Nasdaq +143

S&P 500:  +91

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Thursday, October 30, 2008
(Cont'd from above)...

We thought gold would be a safe haven, right... we were dead wrong. But, for it to work... why didn't it work?...

It didn't work because you need inflation, and the problem is that we're in a deflationary environment, as assets are being liquidated all over, homes are going down in value... Those are all deflationary things that really... plus, gold futures are being sold off to meet margin calls...

Everything's going wrong with gold...

Gold also turned out to be more cyclical than we thought... The credit crisis is causing jewelry manufacturers to hold less inventory. They're buying less gold!

Owning gold as a safe haven clearly didn't work. I was wrong. That's why I broke out the gold crow... I'll happily admit it... Happily, of course, because as long-time viewers know, I completely and utterly disdain myself...

That said, I think we're two quarters away from a gold explosion... and, right now, everyone hates it...

Actually, right now, I could come out here and say that I'm "early"... I hear people say that all the time and I just think that there ought to be a little bug underneath them saying, "liar, liar, pants on fire"... but, no... I'm not saying I was early. I was just wrong... and making the prices of gold and gold stock, I think, are going to look very cheap right now, in maybe six months...

I think we'll see a worldwide panic by governments that will get us out of this deflationary spiral. And, if the European Central Bank cuts next week... as I sure hope they do... and cuts big... you're going to see a huge rally in gold, which is why I would own some right here...

You can't take my word for it though, because I was so completely wrong. But, if you did think... okay, Cramer was wrong at $68 but, in the $20s, maybe he's right... which gold play should you do?

Should you be in
Agnico-Eagle (AEM)?...

In the quarter they just reported, their cash costs were about $240 an ounce, compared to $113 an ounce the quarter before. Now, some of that is the result of lower by-product revenues. We saw this too with
Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY)... Lower zinc, silver can copper prices... But AEM's gold production also looked to be lighter than expected for the quarter, and the company said gold production for the year should come in at 300,000 ounces. That's the low end of its guidance. Boy, did I screw this one up.

I want to know if AEM can turn its cash costs around, and be a worthwhile play going forward...

So we're bringing on Sean Boyd... he's AEM's CEO... to talk about what's going on at his company.

Mr. Boyd, welcome to Mad Money...

Jim's comments AFTER the interview:     Look...  I know you can't trust me on this... because I got this wrong.  You have to go do your own homework...  you have to say, listen... they were real high, and now they've come down a lot...  You heard what he says... this is a stock that's on the come.  They have a lot of new mines opening.  You know that everytime people open up a new mine, things go wrong... they don't get the right numbers...  But how about looking at it like this...  If you're like I am, and you're thinking that the world is printing money in order to get out of this jam, you know that sometime in the next 18 months, people are going to start worrying about inflation again.  So maybe you sock it in in the mid-$20s...  and you sell it where I told you to buy it...

Read Jim's next Segment here  
    

 

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