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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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TNH |
87.87 |
Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P.
(TNH)
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Jim:
We're looking for
stocks that work
under an Obama
administration, and
I believe, if
elected... that
seems pretty much a
foregone conclusion
at this point...
Barack Obama, who
owes the farmers in
Iowa and Illinois...
two key ethanol
states... big
time... will become
"the ethanol
President"...
We live in a payback
world and, even with
oil down to $66,
there's still a bull
case to be made for
agriculture... Obama
may be a liberal,
but we're betting he
realizes that we are
a nation of, by, and
for the corporation.
Those worried that
he's from the land
of Lincoln, and may
use that president's
mantra... something
about government by
the people... I
think are misjudging
our cynical,
pro-shareholder
election process...
But we want to be
careful... We don't
want just any ag
name. In this
market, we like
nothing more than
stocks with what I'm
describing as
accidentally-high
dividend yields...
companies that used
to have so-so
dividends, where the
yields were
catapulted into the
heavens, after the
share prices fell
just as
dramatically...
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Continued below...
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Monday,
November 3, 2008
(Cont'd from
above)...
That's why I
like... and I
have never used
this name ever
on this show...
I like...
Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P.
(TNH).
This is a stock
that has been
called into the
Lightning Round
for years, and I
have said, no,
no, no, no,
no... sell,
sell, sell,
sell... but not
now.
TNH, a
fertilizer stock
that's been more
than cut in
half, and
currently yields
a colossal
12.75%...
If you believe
in the bull case
for agriculture,
TNH is the play.
This one still
has a great
dividend, even
if they have to
cut the
distribution,
making it way
better than
Potash (POT)
or
Mosaic (MOS)
or
Agrium (AGU)...
all once Cramer
faves, but
pulled from the
Cramerican buy
list three
months ago, at
much higher
prices... It
doesn't mean we
get a lot right.
It does mean we
got that right.
And, even
without the
super-high
yield, TNH is
still a better
stock than its
fertilizer
competitors,
because it has
the most
exposure to
corn, which
requires three
times the amount
of fertilizer
than what's
required to grow
wheat, and has a
lot more going
for it than any
other crop.
Farmers are
going to plant
what's most
profitable and,
as long as our
catastrophic,
crucifying
mankind upon a
cross of
ethanol, biofuel
mandate is in
effect, we're
going to be
using 30% of our
corn crop... and
that could go to
37% in 2014...
in the U.S. to
produce 3% of
our gasoline...
a huge
artificial
government boost
in corn demand.
The USDA
projects that
demand for corn
in 2009 will
increase by
about 33% over
demand for corn
in 2008, so
there's still a
case to be made
for ag, even as
all these stocks
have been bent,
spindled and
mutilated at the
hands of hedge
funds that have
ditched these
commodities.
Rising meat
production also
requires more
corn to be used
as feed, and all
of this
contributes to
fertilizer
demand. Plus,
the farmers
haven't had a
handout in like
three or four
weeks... Oh, and
don't worry
about that
VeraSun
bankruptcy...
take that off
the table...
That's one of
the original
ethanol stocks
that gaffed the
public like a
knife right
through your
cornea...
I mean, ethanol
subsidies have
nothing to do
with the real
world... they're
all political
and economic,
and are just
there to make
farmers and you
money...
But we don't
want to get too
bullish... We're
not going back
to the day where
a Mosaic or an
Agrium could
double... We
want to play it
safe if we're
investing in ag,
and that's why I
like this TNH,
with its massive
yield, that will
continue to be
enormous, even
if it gets cut.
But TNH isn't
just a better
fertilizer
stock. It also
makes a better
fertilizer.
The company
makes a urea
ammonium
nitrate... we
call it UAN...
UAN
fertilizer...
which is taking
share from
ammonia...
although the
company makes
ammonia too,
just not as much
of it, because
UAN can be used
more quickly,
with a custom
applicator. It
can cover as
much as 1500
acres a day,
compared to 200
acres with
ammonia
fertilizer. And,
unlike ammonia,
UAN doesn't have
to be used when
weather and soil
conditions are
just right... A
lot of good
stuff going on
here...
Plus, lower
natural gas
prices... and
they have
plummeted...
they mean lower
input costs for
TNH. And, since
natural gas
prices in North
America than in
the European
Union (EU), that
gives this
company a huge
competitive
advantage on
global
pricing... with
raw costs down,
and a president
who wants to
raise more corn
and less Haities
(hell)... What a
combo for TNH!
But it's the
yield that
really sets TNH
apart...
This company is
one of those
master limited
partnerships
that has to pay
out nearly all
of its operating
cash flow to its
shareholders
every quarter,
which is why the
dividend is so
big... The
minimum
quarterly
dividend for TNH
is 60.5 cents a
share... that's
a 3% at current
prices... and
the yield
changes based on
how much cash
the company
brings in. But,
over the past
seven quarters,
the yield's been
much higher than
that minimum,
and it should
stay that way.
TNH common units
have paid $2.80,
$3.63, $4.20,
$4.45, $2.10,
$3.00 and $1.57
over the last
seven quarters.
And the next
quarterly
dividend is
$2.80 a share.
But the
ex-dividend date
for that is
Wednesday, so
you've got to
buy this one
before the close
of trading on
Tuesday to
qualify for the
dividend. Wow...
not a lot of
time there for
you.
Don't look a
fertilizer gift
cow in the
mouth...
especially one
that's a corn
eater...
Now, there are
some negatives
too, and we're
going to go over
the negatives,
alright...
The most
important one is
the ownership
structure.
Terra Industries Inc. (TRA)
owns 75% of the
outstanding
common units of
TNH, so this is
a parent-sub
relationship.
You know we
usually don't
like buying
subsidiaries. In
fact, it's one
of the tenets of
Real Money...
But the yield on
TNH is so
phenomenal, it's
hard to pass up,
especially with
an ethanol, I
mean, an Obama
administration
looking
likely...
Here's the
bottom line...
The Bottom Line!:
If you believe
in agriculture,
the stock to buy
is
Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P.
(TNH)...
Because,
remember, we're
only
recommending
stocks on this
show, because
the market is
uncertain...
other than
Mastercard
(MA),
which will be up
huge tomorrow...
the market's are
uncertain when
stocks that
trade near their
cash (value)...
We want
recession-recession
resistant
stocks, because
we're going into
a recession, or
we want big
dividends. TNH
qualifies under
the third.
[verbatim recap]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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