Opening Segment #3:  

'Plowing for Profits'

 
Monday, November 3, 2008  
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

TNH

87.87

Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. (TNH)


 

Jim:       We're looking for stocks that work under an Obama administration, and I believe, if elected... that seems pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point... Barack Obama, who owes the farmers in Iowa and Illinois... two key ethanol states... big time... will become "the ethanol President"...

We live in a payback world and, even with oil down to $66, there's still a bull case to be made for agriculture... Obama may be a liberal, but we're betting he realizes that we are a nation of, by, and for the corporation. Those worried that he's from the land of Lincoln, and may use that president's mantra... something about government by the people... I think are misjudging our cynical, pro-shareholder election process...

But we want to be careful... We don't want just any ag name. In this market, we like nothing more than stocks with what I'm describing as accidentally-high dividend yields... companies that used to have so-so dividends, where the yields were catapulted into the heavens, after the share prices fell just as dramatically...

       
                                                 

Continued below...     

 

Market Results today:

Dow +144

Nasdaq +22

S&P 500:  +14

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Monday, November 3, 2008
(Cont'd from above)...

That's why I like... and I have never used this name ever on this show... I like...

Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. (TNH).

This is a stock that has been called into the Lightning Round for years, and I have said, no, no, no, no, no... sell, sell, sell, sell... but not now.

TNH, a fertilizer stock that's been more than cut in half, and currently yields a colossal 12.75%...

If you believe in the bull case for agriculture, TNH is the play. This one still has a great dividend, even if they have to cut the distribution, making it way better than Potash (POT) or Mosaic (MOS) or Agrium (AGU)... all once Cramer faves, but pulled from the Cramerican buy list three months ago, at much higher prices... It doesn't mean we get a lot right. It does mean we got that right.

And, even without the super-high yield, TNH is still a better stock than its fertilizer competitors, because it has the most exposure to corn, which requires three times the amount of fertilizer than what's required to grow wheat, and has a lot more going for it than any other crop.

Farmers are going to plant what's most profitable and, as long as our catastrophic, crucifying mankind upon a cross of ethanol, biofuel mandate is in effect, we're going to be using 30% of our corn crop... and that could go to 37% in 2014... in the U.S. to produce 3% of our gasoline... a huge artificial government boost in corn demand.

The USDA projects that demand for corn in 2009 will increase by about 33% over demand for corn in 2008, so there's still a case to be made for ag, even as all these stocks have been bent, spindled and mutilated at the hands of hedge funds that have ditched these commodities.

Rising meat production also requires more corn to be used as feed, and all of this contributes to fertilizer demand. Plus, the farmers haven't had a handout in like three or four weeks... Oh, and don't worry about that VeraSun bankruptcy... take that off the table... That's one of the original ethanol stocks that gaffed the public like a knife right through your cornea...

I mean, ethanol subsidies have nothing to do with the real world... they're all political and economic, and are just there to make farmers and you money...

But we don't want to get too bullish... We're not going back to the day where a Mosaic or an Agrium could double... We want to play it safe if we're investing in ag, and that's why I like this TNH, with its massive yield, that will continue to be enormous, even if it gets cut.

But TNH isn't just a better fertilizer stock. It also makes a better fertilizer.

The company makes a urea ammonium nitrate... we call it UAN... UAN fertilizer... which is taking share from ammonia... although the company makes ammonia too, just not as much of it, because UAN can be used more quickly, with a custom applicator. It can cover as much as 1500 acres a day, compared to 200 acres with ammonia fertilizer. And, unlike ammonia, UAN doesn't have to be used when weather and soil conditions are just right... A lot of good stuff going on here...

Plus, lower natural gas prices... and they have plummeted... they mean lower input costs for TNH. And, since natural gas prices in North America than in the European Union (EU), that gives this company a huge competitive advantage on global pricing... with raw costs down, and a president who wants to raise more corn and less Haities (hell)... What a combo for TNH!

But it's the yield that really sets TNH apart...

This company is one of those master limited partnerships that has to pay out nearly all of its operating cash flow to its shareholders every quarter, which is why the dividend is so big... The minimum quarterly dividend for TNH is 60.5 cents a share... that's a 3% at current prices... and the yield changes based on how much cash the company brings in. But, over the past seven quarters, the yield's been much higher than that minimum, and it should stay that way.

TNH common units have paid $2.80, $3.63, $4.20, $4.45, $2.10, $3.00 and $1.57 over the last seven quarters. And the next quarterly dividend is $2.80 a share. But the ex-dividend date for that is Wednesday, so you've got to buy this one before the close of trading on Tuesday to qualify for the dividend. Wow... not a lot of time there for you.

Don't look a fertilizer gift cow in the mouth... especially one that's a corn eater...

Now, there are some negatives too, and we're going to go over the negatives, alright...

The most important one is the ownership structure.
Terra Industries Inc. (TRA) owns 75% of the outstanding common units of TNH, so this is a parent-sub relationship. You know we usually don't like buying subsidiaries. In fact, it's one of the tenets of Real Money... But the yield on TNH is so phenomenal, it's hard to pass up, especially with an ethanol, I mean, an Obama administration looking likely...

Here's the bottom line...

The Bottom Line!:     If you believe in agriculture, the stock to buy is Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. (TNH)... Because, remember, we're only recommending stocks on this show, because the market is uncertain... other than Mastercard (MA), which will be up huge tomorrow... the market's are uncertain when stocks that trade near their cash (value)... We want recession-recession resistant stocks, because we're going into a recession, or we want big dividends. TNH qualifies under the third.

[verbatim recap]

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