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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Bargain
Hunting' |
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Monday,
November 24, 2008 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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JNY |
3.81 |
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SGR |
15.20 |
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See comments continued below...
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Monday,
November 24, 2008
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim (cont'd):
You know
what?... Enough
is enough. Over
a year ago, back
when I was
screaming, "They
know
nothing!"... and
they knew
nothing, and
trying to warn
you about the
impending
financial
apocalypse... I
was incredibly
negative on the
market.
I was right...
I told you to
sell at least
20% of your
portfolio back
on September
19th, when the
Dow was at
11,300... Sell,
sell, sell... I
was a total
pessimist about
the market and I
was right. And
when I came on
the Today Show
and sell
everything you
need to pay for
your big outlays
over the next
five years...
that was on
October 6th when
the Dow was at
10,000... I was
Mr.
Negativity...
Now look, I
obviously wish I
were wrong...
but it didn't
work out that
way... I still
feel that, if
you need that
money, you
should take
advantage of the
strength that
might come here.
But I also know
that, now that
prices have
fallen so far so
fast, and it
seems that
everyone has
become as gloomy
as I was when I
made those sell
calls... Yet we
have a new
economic team,
and we saved the
world's largest
bank,
Citigroup... I
think it's time
again... and you
know I said this
last week, when
the market was
about to
plummet, and
plummeted... are
we too negative.
Look, I know
that everything
from variable
annuities to
life insurance
has become
questionable in
this
environment. I'm
not denying that
we have huge
problems in
retail and that
there's big
trouble in
Motown
(Detroit)...
Until today,
despite massive
and numerous
interventions,
our banking
system remained
in tatters...
Despite all
that, we have to
admit we are in
much better
shape today than
we were on
Friday. And this
may be the point
where it's more
dangerous and
irresponsible to
be too negative
than it is to
make room for a
little optimism,
and start
recognizing that
good things can
happen and do
happen.
Now that most
people have
become as
negative as I
was a year ago,
and the market's
taken a huge
hit, you've got
to look at some
of the
positives...
And, by the way,
look, we just
had a two-day
run... we're
going to wait
for a selloff.
I'm not going to
tell you to go
buy stuff today.
We just had a
two-day run, but
we have to
recognize that
there are some
positives, and
we have to
recognize that
there are some
bargains. Again,
when you're up
800 straight
points, I do not
come in here and
say, start
buying like a
demon... that
would be wrong.
I would poise
myself for a
selloff... but
there are some
bargains.
The Bottom Line!:
I am not saying
that everything
will be alright,
or that the
market isn't up
too high. We've
had too big a
run... a retest
of last week's
lows... But I
don't want to
run the risk of
being a
"perma-Bear"...
You have to be
realistic. For a
long time, that
meant being
relentlessly
negative...
nothing but
negative. But
not anymore.
After this
weekend, after
the new
Citigroup
plan... after
the fact that
Obama has an
(economic)
team... Well,
there are some
genuine
positives. That
doesn't mean you
should buy hand
over fist... but
I can't help but
be attracted to
the stocks that
have
accidentally-high
dividends... to
the companies
that are trading
around cash,
like
Jones Apparel (JNY)
and
Shaw Group Inc. (SGR),
or the basic,
recession-resistant
stocks that were
all down today,
because we're
still not going
to have a strong
economy. I like
those even more.
You have to
believe in some
of the
infrastructure
stocks, given
Obama's big
infrastructure
package. You
know, you saw
Jacobs Engineering Group,
Inc. (JEC)
move...
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT),
an
accidentally-high
yield. I've
never been blind
to
opportunity...
And I see it, if
only to remind
you what to buy
when we give up
the gains from
today and
Friday.
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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