Opening Segment #3:
'Bargain Hunting'
Monday, November 24, 2008
 
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

JNY

3.81

Jones Apparel (JNY)


SGR

15.20

Shaw Group Inc. (SGR)


 

See comments continued below...     

 

Market Results today:

Dow + 396

Nasdaq + 87

S&P 500:  + 51

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Monday, November 24, 2008
(Cont'd from above)...


Jim (cont'd):    You know what?... Enough is enough. Over a year ago, back when I was screaming, "They know nothing!"... and they knew nothing, and trying to warn you about the impending financial apocalypse... I was incredibly negative on the market.

I was right...

I told you to sell at least 20% of your portfolio back on September 19th, when the Dow was at 11,300... Sell, sell, sell... I was a total pessimist about the market and I was right. And when I came on the Today Show and sell everything you need to pay for your big outlays over the next five years... that was on October 6th when the Dow was at 10,000... I was Mr. Negativity...

Now look, I obviously wish I were wrong... but it didn't work out that way... I still feel that, if you need that money, you should take advantage of the strength that might come here.

But I also know that, now that prices have fallen so far so fast, and it seems that everyone has become as gloomy as I was when I made those sell calls... Yet we have a new economic team, and we saved the world's largest bank, Citigroup... I think it's time again... and you know I said this last week, when the market was about to plummet, and plummeted... are we too negative.

Look, I know that everything from variable annuities to life insurance has become questionable in this environment. I'm not denying that we have huge problems in retail and that there's big trouble in Motown (Detroit)... Until today, despite massive and numerous interventions, our banking system remained in tatters...

Despite all that, we have to admit we are in much better shape today than we were on Friday. And this may be the point where it's more dangerous and irresponsible to be too negative than it is to make room for a little optimism, and start recognizing that good things can happen and do happen.

Now that most people have become as negative as I was a year ago, and the market's taken a huge hit, you've got to look at some of the positives... And, by the way, look, we just had a two-day run... we're going to wait for a selloff. I'm not going to tell you to go buy stuff today. We just had a two-day run, but we have to recognize that there are some positives, and we have to recognize that there are some bargains. Again, when you're up 800 straight points, I do not come in here and say, start buying like a demon... that would be wrong. I would poise myself for a selloff... but there are some bargains.

The Bottom Line!:     I am not saying that everything will be alright, or that the market isn't up too high. We've had too big a run... a retest of last week's lows... But I don't want to run the risk of being a "perma-Bear"... You have to be realistic. For a long time, that meant being relentlessly negative... nothing but negative. But not anymore. After this weekend, after the new Citigroup plan... after the fact that Obama has an (economic) team... Well, there are some genuine positives. That doesn't mean you should buy hand over fist... but I can't help but be attracted to the stocks that have accidentally-high dividends... to the companies that are trading around cash, like Jones Apparel (JNY) and Shaw Group Inc. (SGR), or the basic, recession-resistant stocks that were all down today, because we're still not going to have a strong economy. I like those even more. You have to believe in some of the infrastructure stocks, given Obama's big infrastructure package. You know, you saw Jacobs Engineering Group, Inc. (JEC) move... Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), an accidentally-high yield. I've never been blind to opportunity... And I see it, if only to remind you what to buy when we give up the gains from today and Friday.

Read Jim's next Segment here  
    

 

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