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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Transfer of
Wealth' |
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Tuesday,
December 2, 2008 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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ETP |
31.49 |
Energy Transfer Partners L.P.
(ETP)
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Jim:
Hey, you want some
safety?... You want
something you can
sleep at night
with?... I sure
would, after
yesterday's
shellacking.
You could put your
money in bonds and,
if you're talking
about your
retirement
portfolio, some of
your money should be
in bonds... but
let's be honest
here. 10-year
Treasuries are
pitiful! They yield
under 3%. You could
do better in stocks,
if we can find the
right ones... even
in this market...
this "volatile"
market... code word
for "bad"...
So I'm urging you to
take a good hard
look at one of my
favorite lovey
blanket names that
has come down a
lot... This is an
ahh baby lovey
blanket...
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See comments continued below...
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Tuesday,
December 2, 2008
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim (cont'd):
It's called
Energy Transfer Partners L.P.
(ETP).
This is one of
those Master
Limited
Partnerships
like
Cramer-fave,
KMP... companies
that have to
distribute the
vast majority of
their profits to
shareholders in
the form of a
big, juicy
dividend.
In the case of
ETP, which is
expected to pay
out $3.76 (per
share) next
year, we are
talking about a
bountiful... a
magnificent
11.8% yield!
That's more than
four times what
you get from
owning a 10-year
(Treasury
bond)...
If you're new to
the show, ETP is
all about Sir
Mix A Lot's
first
corollary... You
know what he
says, Sir Mix A
Lot... "I like
big yields and I
cannot lie"...
This company
doesn't just
have a big
yield. It also
looks like a
safe one... ETP
isn't one of
those companies
that gets its
money from
producing
natural gas...
and it's profits
are only loosely
tied to the
price of the
commodity...
ETP gets 90%...
90% of its
earnings before
interest, taxes,
depreciation,
and
amortization...
Anyway, the
company gets its
fees from moving
a commodity, so
the fact that
gas prices have
fallen off a
cliff doesn't
really matter to
the earnings...
Now, we've got a
few rules on
this show when
it comes to
dividends...
Can the company
afford to pay
up?... Well,
ETP's expected
to generate
$6.17 a share of
cash flow next
year... which
isn't quite
double the
expected $3.76
(dividend) a
share but, since
the company's
balance sheet is
pretty clean,
relative to its
peers, I think
that's enough
cash flow to
call the
dividend
distribution
safe.
Next rule... the
rule of 72...
This is why we
love stocks with
high yields...
especially in an
environment
where there
isn't a lot of
reason to expect
upside from
stocks...
ETP will pay you
to own their
stock... they
will pay you a
lot. At the
current price,
ETP yields 11.8%
on next year's
expected
distribution.
Now, how about
this rule of 72?
It tells you how
long it'll take
for you to
double your
money in an
investment, as
long as you
reinvest the
dividends... You
divide 72 by the
yield... 6.1.
That means, if
you buy ETP
here, and the
stock does
nothing...
nothing at
all... As long
as it maintains
its dividend...
just maintains
it... and you
reinvest the
dividend in the
stock... you'll
double your
money in a
little more than
six years.
That's what I
call better than
a sharp stick
right through my
retina.
Why else do we
like ETP?...
$500 million in
cash, $600
million left
untapped in its
unfinished
revolving credit
agreement. The
company's also
working on a
joint venture
with
OGE Energy
Corp. (OGE).
It's going to
knock off $500
million worth of
debt from its
revolver too.
ETP's last
quarter was
nothing short of
spectacular...
and they were
real.
The company
earned 93 cents
per share, while
the Street was
only expecting
44 cents. Then,
you probably ask
plaintively, why
has it been
going down? It's
the usual
suspects!...
It's heavily
owned by hedge
funds gone
wild... and, of
course now, gone
belly up...
ETP got a couple
of big projects
down the road
that should make
it possible to
keep growing its
dividend
distribution...
These are 50/50
deals with
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners
(KMP),
which I also
love. Now, KMP
is a better
company, but
it's got the
lesser yield...
evil of two
lessers... One
of these joint
ventures is to
build a pipeline
to connect
Fayetteville
Shale, that
should be up and
running in 2010.
And the other is
a 500-mile
pipeline between
Oklahoma and
Alabama, that
should be online
in the second
quarter of 2009.
One more
thing...
Insiders...
buying back
stock on the
market... right
in the open
market... hand
over fist...
Now, remember,
the only reason
insiders buy is
because they
think that they
will make money.
Here's the
bottom line...
The Bottom Line!:
There aren't a
lot of great
stocks to own in
this market...
but, if you want
to try to make
some money, and
have a lovey
blanket to
boot...
Energy Transfer Partners L.P.
(ETP),
with its mighty
11.8% yield,
will pay you a
lot of money
just to own the
stock. This is
the kind of name
that should let
you get through
the day
unscathed, and
hopefully have
more money in
your pocket, and
hopefully allow
your money to
come out its
Stearns and
Foster or Sealy
or Duxiana
(mattress) and
make a lot more
money than you
would in your
mattress.
[verbatim recap]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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