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  Opening Segment #1:
Cramer's Game Plan
for Next Week

 

  Friday, April 13, 2012
 
 

 

   
 

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Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

C

33.41

Citigroup (C)

GS

115.09

Goldman Sachs (GS)

JNJ

63.54

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

KO*

71.94

Coca-Cola (KO*)

IBM*

202.80

IBM (IBM*)

INTC

28.09

Intel Corp. (INTC)

QCOM

66.67

QualComm Inc. (QCOM)

AXP

57.28

American Express (AXP)

MS

17.28

Morgan Stanley (MS)

BAC

8.68

Bank of America (BAC)

MSFT

30.81

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)

GE

18.88

General Electric (GE)

HON

58.07

Honeywell (HON)

UA

96.26

Under Armour, Inc. (UA)

KMB

74.35

Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB)

SLB

68.38

Schlumberger (SLB)

 
 

   Jim's Quotes from this segment:  

Jim:
          
Spin the tail on the selloff again... That's what we were doing on a day when the averages just were obliterated, with the Dow sinking 137 points... People want so much to say this market plummeted because of Chinese weakness overnight. Oh, of course, the Chinese stock market was up. Or maybe European worries. Or because a couple of banks and tech companies reported numbers that looked disappointing.

I'm not buying that rap... not at all. The truth is, we shed some points today, because we rallied huge the last two days, the biggest two-day rally of the year... and in a healthy market... one that's reliable and bankable, you just don't go up in a straight line.

Now I know today's action was unsettling for many. But I remain committed to the notion that, if the global economy were a game of poker, simple 5-card Stud, then right now, we've got a pair of Kings. And that could win... in the form of Chinese Central Bank easing that I'm expecting momentarily, and much more likely after last night's softer-than-expected China GDP number... and terrific corporate earnings, despite the declines in stocks of Google, J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo.

Yep, earnings aren't going to define this market, which means that next week is about as important as it gets. So what's our Game Plan? Well, this is the real report card, boy; this is the biggest set of earnings imaginable; it's going to be the toughest week of the year for me, because I've got so much
homework to do. It will be total "fog of war" and confusion will reign, so as I... four times a year... warn you, we're going to see a lot of craziness next week, as traders take quick action, right after an earnings report, without doing a stitch of homework.

How dangerous is that - how dangerous? Well consider what happened just last night and this morning. Without listening to the Google conference call, morons took the stock up 18 points from the close. On Twitter, people were saying Jim, why didn't you comment on it? Do you mind if I listen to the conference call? You know why? Those people who bought it 18 points up? It sold off 45 points from where those jokers did their buying. J.P. Morgan rallied $1.50 right when the company reported, the number hit. And then proceeded to cascade $2.50 from when these brain-dead, quick-draw-McGraws took action. I'm not saying these stocks aren't now buys. I think they are, down here. I just need you to be weary of next week, because there will be more of the Google and J.P. Morgan nonsense on a daily basis. So listen to the conference call,
do your homework, and don't shoot first.

MONDAY

Citigroup

Lots of players decided to blow out of the banks, after J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo reported. They were terrific earnings. Just because the stock was down, people were saying they had to be doing bad. Don't play that game. And they got obliterated anyway. You want to turn that whole banking group around? Well you better hope that Citigroup reports a darn good number on Monday. We need to hear about growth turning positive overseas. We need to hear about a cleaner, Fed-pleasing balance sheet. We need to hear about some sort of capital return, a dividend, a buyback... I'll take anything. Or at least a plan that the Fed could approve. But if we don't get good news, look for more of the same for the banking group, after the big C reports.

TUESDAY

Goldman Sachs

Tuesday begins the real parade, and it is a little overwhelming. Goldman Sachs gives you its quarter. And unlike pretty much anytime I can remember in well... and of course I worked there in the '80s... I have no idea how well they'll do. Goldman has become a total black box. My thinking though is that the company has gone so conservative that, even if they report a good number, they will be less than enthusiastic when they explain the quarter on the conference call. It could be still one more down day for the baks, if Goldman Sachs doesn't get a little exuberant here.

Johnson & Johnson

Oh man, we're also going to hear from J&J. And it would shock me if they have anything positive to say at all, other than a long-awaited goodbye to Wall-Of-Shamer, CEO, William Weldon, who's done a fantastic job at tarnishing J&J's once-sterling reputation. Lawsuits, recalls, defective products, fines. That's become the hallmark of this once-fabulous company. It's almost become their cost of doing business, like a regular line item. Pretty disgraceful, if you ask me.

Coca-Cola

But the good news is, we do have a couple of serial outperformers reporting on Tuesday too. Notably, Coca-Cola, before the bell, and IBM, after the close. I think both will light up the sky with good chatter.

IBM, Inc.

See Coca-Cola comments above, for Intel.

Intel Corp.

And I bet we'll be pleasantly surprised when we hear Intel's report after the bell, because personal computer sales seemed to have stabilized. Plus, Intel's got this terrific server business that backs up the web, huge server farms filled with Intel machines, and an amazing new chip that's powering smaller, form factor PCs. And they're selling much better than anyone would have predicted.

WEDNESDAY

QualComm, Inc.

The semiconductor love is going to continue, I think, Wednesday. That's QualComm day. Oh boy, do people love that stock. And why not? It's the brains behind Apple, and almost all the smartphones out there. It gives you a delicious opportunity to buy. And you know why? Because it was off a $1.66 today. If it drops a point or two from here, then you might actually want to buy it, maybe Tuesday evening, right... Tuesday, in the last hour, ahead of this quarter. QualComm will not be able to mention Apple by name, without fear of losing their business. But you might want to pick some of the world's largest company up too, before QualComm reports, because Apple was pretty horrible today.

American Express

We also hear from American Express Wednesday afternoon. And I think AXP will tell you that business is coming back strong. The stock tends to get hammered instantaneous to when it reports. And then spends a couple of days wandering the wilderness before rocketing higher. Since it's owned by my charitable trust,
where can follow along at ActionAlertsPlus, I'm going to be all over it, and I hope give you a really good quarterly analysis when we come in the next day.

THURSDAY

Spanish Bond Auction

Alright, Thursday will be the roughest day of the week, and not because of earnings. We have a gigantic Spanish bond auction that morning... a 10-year bond. And I've got to tell you, I think that auction could go terribly. i think it will be awful. And that's going to control the action in the a.m. You need this, so you don't get too aggressive on Wednesday, and then find out that Spain did you in, if the auction crashes. And I actually suspect it might.

Morgan Stanley

A miserable Spanish auction might give you a chance to buy Morgan Stanley. That's a constantly trashed stock lately. It was down huge today. And you might be able to get it as low as the $16s. That could be an excellent opportunity since, when Morgan Stanley reports on Thursday morning, I think it will be one of the stronger earnings calls out there. Morgan Stanley is a fabulous firm. I know it doesn't seem like that anymore. I know it's tarred as a European stepchild, but that's pure nonsense. It might be the cheapest stock of the whole brokerage group.

Bank of America

Bank of America reports that morning too. If the banks continue to go down into this quarter, and Spain's terrible, then BAC might be ready to rally, no matter what. Even if it's results aren't that good, particularly if it's got what's known as "a 7 handle," meaning its stock is only worth $7. Otherwise, it's not going to be my favorite. I mean, think about it, J.P. Morgan and Wells got pulverized on those excellent quarters. It's hard for me to get behind this poorly-performing operation that is Bank of America, even as the stock's done well in 2012. But that's because it's so cratered in 2011.

Microsoft Corp.

After the bell, Microsoft reports. Mister Softy has a new product cycle going for it. And that's always been a good time to buy the stock. The bad news? Everyone knows that. The stock's been red-hot. It makes me a little weary, going into the quarter. And remember, technically we've felt that, if the stock broke below $30, that's where we'd be buyers.

FRIDAY

General Electric

Usually, Friday's are light, but not during earnings season. We've got four incredibly important reports this Friday. It starts with General Electric, okay.... which I think will be terrific. Hence, why
my charitable trust has been buying it. Don't forget, GE's got a 3.5% yield, so it's got yield protection, okay. And I think there's some nifty dividend boosts coming soon.

Honeywell

We're also going to hear from two other companies that I think are just plain old buys, if they're down ahead of the reports... because the rain in Spain hits more than the plain. I'm talking about Honeywell and Under Armour. You've heard me talk about these companies endlessly.

Under Armour

See Honeywell comments above.

Kimberly-Clark

And then one that should be bought after it disappoints, and that's Kimberly-Clark. That's right, after it disappoints. That's right - after it disappoints. A magnificent and growing dividend, and it is less than a point off its high. People won't like it. They'll throw it out, and that's your chance.

Schumberger

Best for last, we hear from Schlumberger on Friday, and the oil service stocks have entered bear market levels now. Amazing. Because of the collapse in natural gas prices. Don't buy SLB. Just listen to the call. I bet you they tell you it's an oil drilling renaissance, even as it's a natural gas disaster.

The bottom line...

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

In sum, I think the overall earnings will be terrific. You just might not know it though until, like in Football, you get a further review, which comes not from looking at the video tape, but listening to the conference call. Not watching the trading. Be smart. Listen and learn. And only then, pull the trigger!

New streamlined recap format:

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Convenient direct video link for just this segment here:  Video link (new window)...

[end of segment]

Read Jim's next Segment here  

 

Note:   Pertaining to these stock recommendations & any other, Jim Cramer recommends that we do our homework before investing.   We've provided a free workbook at this StockHomework101 site for this,   here >>

 

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[end of segment]

*Note:  An asterisk next to a stock indicates that Jim owns it currently for his charitable trust.  If you are interested in a particular stock, Jim Cramer recommends that you always do the homework on each stock, and that you wait at least one trading week after his show recommendation to evaluate whether it is a good stock trade or investment for you. 

Market Results today:

Dow:  - 137

Nasdaq:  - 44

S&P 500:  - 17

 

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