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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Love
and
Marriage' |
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Friday,
December 5, 2008 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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AA |
8.15 |
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FCX* |
16.80 |
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Jim:
M.C. Kramer and the
house... bringing
you to more shotgun
corporate
weddings...
That's right, they
can make everybody
involved money...
Forget everything
you've heard about
love and marriage...
this is cash and
marriage...
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ*)
has shown us the
way... it's a
self-funding
company... with lots
of cash... and it
has gotten married
not once, but
twice!...
With so many stocks
crushed by the
relentless declines,
more companies need
to imitate Johnson
and Johnson. That's
why I proposed three
shotgun weddings
this week...
I think
Pfizer (PFE)
should buy
Allergan Inc. (AGN),
Illinois Tool Works
Inc. (ITW)
should buy
Manitowoc Co. Inc. (MTW),
and
Nike Inc. (NKE*)
should buy
Under Armour, Inc. (UA)...
all of them would be
profitable as soon
as they were done.
I've got all of Wall
Street buzzing about
this... I actually
do... everybody's
talking about
this...
Because I think this
market needs more
weddings instead of
funerals, I am
bringing on two
more...
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See comments continued below...
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Friday,
December 5, 2008
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim (cont'd):
The first match
I like is
mega-mineral
company,
Rio Tinto plc (RTP),
and the world's
number one
aluminum
company,
Alcoa, Inc. (AA)...
That's right,
RTP paid $101
per share...
$38.1 billion...
for Alcan... at
the same time,
the
second-biggest
aluminum play
after Alcoa, in
July of just
2007, that's
just a year
ago...
I think RTP
should move fast
and get the
near-monopoly
and aluminum...
before Obama
comes in and
wrecks
everything, and
moves antitrust
back to the
Justice
Department from
Commerce...
Believe me,
trust me... only
the Bush
Administration
would let this
ridiculous deal
happen...
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
But here is why
it's terrific...
RTP paid $38
billion for
Alcan... which
has always
played second
fiddle to
Alcoa... just in
July last year,
Alcoa got into a
bidding war with
RTP over Alcan,
making RTP pay
up...
I would say it's
sweet
revenge!... best
tasting cold of
course right out
of the freezer,
wrapped in
aluminum foil...
Now, Alcoa is a
measly eight
dollars and
change... with a
$6.4 billion
market cap...
and a $15.8
billion
enterprise
value... that's
what it would
cost to acquire
it with the
debt...
And all thanks
to a commodity
collapse... not
to mention
production cuts,
a suspended
buyback, and a
dividend that
everybody
expects to be
cut... and, of
course, our
favorite...
hedge funds gone
wild...
What's the
"bride price"
here?... that's
what you're
probably
asking... what's
the bride
price?... It's
next to nothing
compared to what
RTP paid for
Alcan... because
of, yes, you
know... hedge
funds forcing
selling, which
just crushed
these mineral
and mining
names...
RTP is getting a
better company
in Alcoa for 1/6
of the price of
Alcan. With the
two together I
think they would
basically have
that
long-awaited
monopoly on
aluminum... and
we all know,
monopolies are
the best form of
capitalism...
Like the
admonition in
the commercial,
Alcoa can't
wait... In this
case, Alcoa it
wait to be
bought...
because I'm
concerned that a
Pres. Obama
might think
twice about
combining two
huge aluminum
companies... he
might think it's
anti-competitive...
and that could
raise the price
of Reynolds
aluminum wrap...
I say, aluminum
foil be
damned... it's
about time we
shareholders
start making
money!...
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
But, now that
we've gotten RTP
hitched to
Alcoa... I am
feeling bad for
BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP)...
BHP tried and
tried to get
married to RTP,
originally
offering $142
billion, in and
all share deal,
that would have
created one of
the largest
companies in the
world... That's
was back in
November of
2007, but RTP
spurned BHP's
advances...
So... I feel
like I have to
go back into my
yenta Cramer
mode...
I do have a
bride for BHP...
It wanted
minerals with
RTP...
Hey, BHP... I've
got gold... I've
got
molybdenum...
and I've got
copper... right
here for you in
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX*),
a stock that I
happen to own
for
my charitable trust...
but that doesn't
mean I'm waving
my usual
matchmaking
fee...
FCX is a gold
mine...
literally.
Suitors should
be lining up
around the block
to buy this one
after the
pasting it's
taken...
Why?...
Well, first of
all, the stock
has been put
through the
veritable meat
grinder... after
it canceled its
dividend this
week...
Now, the stock
is moving lower,
courtesy of
panicked hedge
funds, who are
forced to adopt
Bob Marley's
homily
redemption
song...
The hedge funds
heavily owned
FCX and, as the
redemptions have
come in, the
selling has been
brutal... But
that's created a
great
opportunity for
BHP to buy...
because FCX is
now a puny $16
stock... with a
market cap of
$6.6 billion...
and an
enterprise value
of $16.6
billion...
Here's the
beautiful
thing...
Back in November
of 2006, FCX
married Phelps
Dodge, to become
a copper
colossus... The
deal valued
Phelps Dodge at
$126 per share,
or $25
billion... Do
you know that's
more than the
combination of
FCX and Phelps
Dodge's worth
now?
If BHP buys FCX,
it's getting
Phelps Dodge for
free... another
genuine by one,
get four free...
because,
ex-debt, FCX is
now worth 1/5 of
the price of
just Phelps
Dodge.
Here's the
bottom line...
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
The Bottom Line!:
I want to see
these two gorgeous,
beautiful mineral
marriages...
Rio Tinto plc (RTP)
to buy... I mean,
wed...
Alcoa, Inc. (AA)...
and
BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP)
to wed... I mean,
buy...
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX*).
These takeover
targets are total
steals at these
prices. And, once we
see this kind of
merger action... all
needed before the
Justice Department
starts siding with
the consumer
again... instead of
the plutocrats...
then maybe things
can be better. I'd
be happy to be a
bridesmaid at either
of these weddings.
But first they have
to happen.
[verbatim recap]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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