Opening Segment #3:
'Love and Marriage'
Friday, December 5, 2008
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

AA

8.15

Alcoa, Inc. (AA)


FCX*

16.80

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX*)


Jim:      M.C. Kramer and the house... bringing you to more shotgun corporate weddings...

That's right, they can make everybody involved money... Forget everything you've heard about love and marriage... this is cash and marriage...

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ*) has shown us the way... it's a self-funding company... with lots of cash... and it has gotten married not once, but twice!...

With so many stocks crushed by the relentless declines, more companies need to imitate Johnson and Johnson. That's why I proposed three shotgun weddings this week...

I think
Pfizer (PFE) should buy Allergan Inc. (AGN), Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) should buy Manitowoc Co. Inc. (MTW), and Nike Inc. (NKE*) should buy Under Armour, Inc. (UA)... all of them would be profitable as soon as they were done.

I've got all of Wall Street buzzing about this... I actually do... everybody's talking about this...

Because I think this market needs more weddings instead of funerals, I am bringing on two more...

See comments continued below...     

 

Market Results today:

Dow + 259

Nasdaq + 63

S&P 500:  + 30

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Friday, December 5, 2008
(Cont'd from above)...


Jim (cont'd):     

The first match I like is mega-mineral company,
Rio Tinto plc (RTP), and the world's number one aluminum company, Alcoa, Inc. (AA)...

That's right, RTP paid $101 per share... $38.1 billion... for Alcan... at the same time, the second-biggest aluminum play after Alcoa, in July of just 2007, that's just a year ago...


I think RTP should move fast and get the near-monopoly and aluminum... before Obama comes in and wrecks everything, and moves antitrust back to the Justice Department from Commerce...

Believe me, trust me... only the Bush Administration would let this ridiculous deal happen...

 

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

But here is why it's terrific...

RTP paid $38 billion for Alcan... which has always played second fiddle to Alcoa... just in July last year, Alcoa got into a bidding war with RTP over Alcan, making RTP pay up...

I would say it's sweet revenge!... best tasting cold of course right out of the freezer, wrapped in aluminum foil...

Now, Alcoa is a measly eight dollars and change... with a $6.4 billion market cap... and a $15.8 billion enterprise value... that's what it would cost to acquire it with the debt...

And all thanks to a commodity collapse... not to mention production cuts, a suspended buyback, and a dividend that everybody expects to be cut... and, of course, our favorite... hedge funds gone wild...

What's the "bride price" here?... that's what you're probably asking... what's the bride price?... It's next to nothing compared to what RTP paid for Alcan... because of, yes, you know... hedge funds forcing selling, which just crushed these mineral and mining names...

RTP is getting a better company in Alcoa for 1/6 of the price of Alcan. With the two together I think they would basically have that long-awaited monopoly on aluminum... and we all know, monopolies are the best form of capitalism...

Like the admonition in the commercial, Alcoa can't wait... In this case, Alcoa it wait to be bought... because I'm concerned that a Pres. Obama might think twice about combining two huge aluminum companies... he might think it's anti-competitive... and that could raise the price of Reynolds aluminum wrap... I say, aluminum foil be damned... it's about time we shareholders start making money!...

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

But, now that we've gotten RTP hitched to Alcoa... I am feeling bad for BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP)...

BHP tried and tried to get married to RTP, originally offering $142 billion, in and all share deal, that would have created one of the largest companies in the world... That's was back in November of 2007, but RTP spurned BHP's advances...

So... I feel like I have to go back into my yenta Cramer mode...

I do have a bride for BHP... It wanted minerals with RTP...

Hey, BHP... I've got gold... I've got molybdenum... and I've got copper... right here for you in
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX*), a stock that I happen to own for my charitable trust... but that doesn't mean I'm waving my usual matchmaking fee...

FCX is a gold mine... literally. Suitors should be lining up around the block to buy this one after the pasting it's taken...

Why?...

Well, first of all, the stock has been put through the veritable meat grinder... after it canceled its dividend this week...

Now, the stock is moving lower, courtesy of panicked hedge funds, who are forced to adopt Bob Marley's homily redemption song...

The hedge funds heavily owned FCX and, as the redemptions have come in, the selling has been brutal... But that's created a great opportunity for BHP to buy... because FCX is now a puny $16 stock... with a market cap of $6.6 billion... and an enterprise value of $16.6 billion...

Here's the beautiful thing...

Back in November of 2006, FCX married Phelps Dodge, to become a copper colossus... The deal valued Phelps Dodge at $126 per share, or $25 billion... Do you know that's more than the combination of FCX and Phelps Dodge's worth now?

If BHP buys FCX, it's getting Phelps Dodge for free... another genuine by one, get four free... because, ex-debt, FCX is now worth 1/5 of the price of just Phelps Dodge.

Here's the bottom line...

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

The Bottom Line!:     I want to see these two gorgeous, beautiful mineral marriages... Rio Tinto plc (RTP) to buy... I mean, wed... Alcoa, Inc. (AA)... and BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) to wed... I mean, buy... Freeport-McMoRan (FCX*). These takeover targets are total steals at these prices. And, once we see this kind of merger action... all needed before the Justice Department starts siding with the consumer again... instead of the plutocrats... then maybe things can be better. I'd be happy to be a bridesmaid at either of these weddings. But first they have to happen.

[verbatim recap]

Read Jim's next Segment here  
    

 

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