Monday, December 8, 2008
(Cont'd from above)...

Jim (cont'd):    So, here's what I want you to do...

I want you to ring the register... I want you to load the shotgun... and ring the register...

At the same time, it seems like we've finally seen the end of the bank blowups... no more sleepless Sunday nights worrying about which financials will be seized by the federal government... no more... no, no more tears...

Now we can go back to watching worry free football and Eagles wins and Cowboys losses... because the financials have, at last, then bought and paid for by you, the taxpayer...

Now, you throw in the fact that governments all over the globe, governments are spending big money on stimulus... They are spending a huge amount of money on stimulus... In the immortal words of Cramer-fave, Pres. Nixon... "We are all Keynesians now!"... You want to play those?... You by the minerals in the shippers he cause, amazingly, China finally rallied, and the shipping index that we follow, the Baltic freight index, rallied too.

Could this be the bottom in China?...

The China fund was up 8.8% today... The China Fund, Inc. (CHN), for those who want to buy a bottom fisher, that feels more like a flounder, then a mackerel...

I think we are also seeing the end, or at least the taming... incredibly... of hedge funds gone wild...

This is one of the most bullish things we've seen in a long time, as hedge funds selling has been the bane of this market... kicking the heck out of every oil, copper, fertilizer, machinery, steel, iron and coal company... Now, a lot of the hedge funds have started giving their investors the shaft, saying no more redemptions, and that means no more forced selling. The hedge funds have shut the gates on their barbarian investors... How dare they take their own money out... Who do they think they are!...

Cold weather has also been great for the natural gas stocks... which were all victims of horrible shortselling... and OPEC's production cuts, along with China's rally, has made everyone feel better about the oils now... especially given the fact that crude prices held at about $40 last week... Look, this trade had been like shooting fish in a barrel... it had been more like shooting napalm into a barrel...

The shorts have to cover, and it feels like that oil is done after that 25% decline... oh man, the shorts were all over it on Thursday and Friday... Memo to the shorts... it's supposed to snow this week... you buy oil and gas - not sell it - ahead of major snowstorms... They were hung today... a short too far...

Now, last week, I said that people had become too negative... that the fear had to go... and that worked out pretty well for us. It's possible that all these factors have caused a genuine bottom in the market.

But what's that mean for you?... And we're tired of that... bottom, bottom, bottom... it does not mean that you can buy all these groups right here, off of these anonymous rallies... If you didn't get in last week, you lost your chance, okay... you lost your chance... at least for the moment, you lost your chance... The market isn't going to go straight up... even it's become a much safer and healthier market...

You've got to be disciplined here, selling into the strength of the stocks that one up today... and buying the defensives, which sat out this rally...

After today and Friday, many of our accidentally high yielding stocks are back to being just medium yielders, so we've got to trim those back too. I'm sorry to be so frugal... on a big up day...

But, remember... we like stocks on weakness... and pound the table when sellers crash the market with willy-nilly selling, and we are sick of the greed that wiped out so many investors in the last year...

To quote one of the Bards... one of the graybeards... don't go lady ga ga on us, and just do the bull dance...

Take profits!... I want you to go buy yourself a sweater...

Here's the bottom line...
 

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The Bottom Line!:     We're a lot better off than we were a week ago... we are also a lot higher... If you didn't buy the stocks that are rallying now... especially the Obama infrastructure names last week... it's okay... you missed it... wait for them to come back down... We like strength... we like the way the market's going up one big volume... We don't like to buy into strength... You know what we do here?... We bring the register...

[verbatim recap]

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