Opening Segment #3:
'Three of a Kind'
Friday, December 12, 2008
 

Jim's
rating on
this stock

STOCK
SYMBOL

Closing
price that
day

Full Company Name

CIEN

6.13

CIENA Corp. (CIEN)


SWKS

4.41

Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS)


TLAB

3.94

Tellabs Inc. (TLAB)


Jim:      Do you think tech has finally bottomed?... The Nasdaq 100 is now at levels that we haven't seen since end of the tech implosion in 2003, hitting a 52-week low of 1018 on November 21... Now, the index has bounced 180 points higher. But it's still more than 887 points off its 52-week high... but now the buyers have made their decision... and the tech bid, the buyers of tech... are here.

You saw that right at the get go, on what should have been a horrific day... when there was only light selling, and then huge buying in tech... truly impressive. It was the vanguard of the turn... as it was on Monday, when
Texas Instruments (TXN) and National Semiconductor (NSM) held in, after bad news.

The buyers are betting tech will be better in 2009 than it was in 2008... and, even if they're wrong about that outlook, their buying made it safer to own everything related to gadgets, cell phones and computers.

This is the kind of moment where there could be a lot of money to be made speculating on the most beaten up, beaten down and certainly out of it tech names... the ones with the most room to roar and come back, now that the tech market has gotten buyers' blessing...

I've got three speculative stocks, all in the single digits, for a high risk/high reward tech bottom basket... and they are...

CIENA Corp. (CIEN), write these down...

Tellabs Inc. (TLAB)... and an old favorite of the show... and

Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS)...

See comments continued below...     

 

Market Results today:

Dow + 64

Nasdaq + 32

S&P 500:  + 6

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Friday, December 12, 2008
(Cont'd from above)...


Jim (cont'd):     

These are three stocks under five dollars, so you'd better listen up... I'm going to give you some backgrounders for you on each one. I want you to spend the weekend looking at the financials before you pull the trigger on any of them Monday. Uninformed speculation is just stupid, and we'll put you in the house of pain...

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

The first... network equipment company, CIENA Corp. (CIEN)... after a announcing a horrific quarter yesterday, closed down 20% in a single day... talk about taking out the risk...

And, at $6.13, the company is now one dollar above its 52-week low... and $29.69 below its 52-week high... now there is some space between bottom and top...

Do you know that there were no downgrades after that miserable quarter... does the estimates had already been sliced... three dollars a share in cash for this one certainly limits the downside...

CIEN makes optical networking gear, and also data and ethernet-based solutions, with businesses built around meeting the increased demand for capacity and better technology and mobile and video and high definition TV... all growth areas. The company sells to telco and cable companies, and it's been crushed, because they've all cut back on their budgets, thanks to the credit crisis and because of the weak American economy...

CIEN has about 25% exposure to AT&T... they been cutting back their wireline spending... which is bearish... but
AT&T (T), I'm bullish on because they raised their dividend... (cutting back their) wireline spending in December and January... hmmm... AT&T has also said that it expects to slash capital expenditures in 2009... we'll hear more about that in January.

These spending cuts are now priced in the CIEN's stock, though... so, with that over with, I think it'll move higher on any big contract wins... or if there's any chance that telco spending would increase next year...

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

Next up is Tellabs Inc. (TLAB)...

Here is $3.30 in cash, no debt, and the stock is at $3.94... what's wrong with this picture?...

This one is also in the telco food chain, which now feels like it has salmonella... TLAB has suffered while the telco companies froze spending, but it should thrive again once they start spending...

Tellabs Inc. (TLAB) makes digital crossconnects, broadband access equipment... you can see all of this stuff on the website... routers... getting 40% of its sales from businesses related to wireless backhaul... upgrading our data infrastructure to keep up with increasing demands for bandwidth. The wireless backhaul should begin in late 2009, and ultimately lead to 15 to 20% growth in broadband and markets over the next three years... this is what TLAB is a play on...

Analysts estimate traffic from wireless data, video over Internet, and enterprises are growing at over 40 to 60%!... We need more bandwidth. TLAB provides it.

The company has had some decent news lately. No one seems to care...

TLAB had a positive analyst day on November 14 and announced a new contract with British Telecom, and reiterated its fourth-quarter guidance... didn't slice it... but the stock still fell 2% the next trading day...

Hey listen, I think that this stock is as close to having no downside as I've ever seen because of that cash flow... remember, we like stocks that are trading at or near cash... real potential for upside...

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

The last member of this motley crew is Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS)...

Break open your cell phone and Skyworks Solutions falls out...

This is a four dollar and change name... it's a play on smart phones... It designs and manufactures high-performance circuits and semiconductors used in mobile phones and in broadband markets... I know... that market installed right now... it can roar again...

Skyworks makes the power amplifiers you find inside a smart phone... you know, they're using 3G or 2G technology... and these amplifiers strengthen the signal... allowing faster downloads for data, web content, and video... I mean, really, come on... it's in the iPhone...

Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS) reported an upbeat fiscal fourth-quarter on November 6... but then Cramer-fave, David Aldrich, reduced its fourth-quarter guidance on December 1... and that led the stock to hit a fresh 52-week low on December 3.

The Street's consensus 2009 earnings per share estimate has come down to $.16 from $.23 a month ago. As fewer smart phones have been built, the suppliers like them Skyworks... well they have taken a beat down...

But now I think that all the bad news is already reflected in the stock and, with a market that's already favoring tech... especially gadget tech... I think Skyworks is much better than Texas instruments... much better than National Semiconductor...

The company is also diversifying away from the handset business. A quarter of its sales are coming from its linear segment... that's a real pastiche, if not a mosaic, of a business... that makes wireless infrastructure for defense, industrial satellites, and energy companies... so, of course, it's not totally captive to the whims of the cell phone market...

Aldrich has steered comebacks before. Let's bet on him again.

Here's the bottom line...

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

The Bottom Line!:     CIENA Corp. (CIEN), Tellabs Inc. (TLAB), Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS)... they've gotten crushed beyond what the rest of tech has endured. They've all kind of pre-announced and told you things are already bad... It tech is bottoming, and it's really at hand, we're going to get a January effect, where these stocks rebound, after the heavy tax-loss selling they are all experiencing. These three single-digit names should come roaring back come January, and there's very little downside, and I mean it, because of the cash.

[verbatim recap]

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