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Opening Segment #3: |
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'Three
of a Kind' |
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Friday,
December 12, 2008 |
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Jim's
rating on
this stock |
STOCK
SYMBOL |
Closing
price that
day |
Full Company Name |
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CIEN |
6.13 |
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SWKS |
4.41 |
Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS)
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TLAB |
3.94 |
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Jim:
Do you think tech
has finally
bottomed?...
The Nasdaq 100
is now at levels
that we haven't seen
since end of the
tech implosion in
2003, hitting a
52-week low of 1018
on November 21...
Now, the index has
bounced 180 points
higher. But it's
still more than 887
points off its
52-week high... but
now the buyers have
made their
decision... and the
tech bid, the buyers
of tech... are here.
You saw that right
at the get go, on
what should have
been a horrific
day... when there
was only light
selling, and then
huge buying in
tech... truly
impressive. It was
the vanguard of the
turn... as it was on
Monday, when
Texas Instruments (TXN)
and
National Semiconductor (NSM)
held in, after bad
news.
The buyers are
betting tech will be
better in 2009 than
it was in 2008...
and, even if they're
wrong about that
outlook, their
buying made it safer
to own everything
related to gadgets,
cell phones and
computers.
This is the kind of
moment where there
could be a lot of
money to be made
speculating on the
most beaten up,
beaten down and
certainly out of it
tech names... the
ones with the most
room to roar and
come back, now that
the tech market has
gotten buyers'
blessing...
I've got three
speculative stocks,
all in the single
digits, for a high
risk/high reward
tech bottom
basket... and they
are...
CIENA Corp. (CIEN),
write these down...
Tellabs Inc.
(TLAB)...
and an old favorite
of the show... and
Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS)...
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See comments continued below...
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Friday,
December 12, 2008
(Cont'd from
above)...
Jim (cont'd):
These are three
stocks under
five dollars, so
you'd better
listen up... I'm
going to give
you some
backgrounders
for you on each
one. I want you
to spend the
weekend looking
at the
financials
before you pull
the trigger on
any of them
Monday.
Uninformed
speculation is
just stupid, and
we'll put you in
the house of
pain...
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
The first...
network
equipment
company,
CIENA Corp. (CIEN)...
after a
announcing a
horrific quarter
yesterday,
closed down 20%
in a single
day... talk
about taking out
the risk...
And, at $6.13,
the company is
now one dollar
above its
52-week low...
and $29.69 below
its 52-week
high... now
there is some
space between
bottom and
top...
Do you know that
there were no
downgrades after
that miserable
quarter... does
the estimates
had already been
sliced... three
dollars a share
in cash for this
one certainly
limits the
downside...
CIEN makes
optical
networking gear,
and also data
and ethernet-based
solutions, with
businesses built
around meeting
the increased
demand for
capacity and
better
technology and
mobile and video
and high
definition TV...
all growth
areas. The
company sells to
telco and cable
companies, and
it's been
crushed, because
they've all cut
back on their
budgets, thanks
to the credit
crisis and
because of the
weak American
economy...
CIEN has about
25% exposure to
AT&T... they
been cutting
back their
wireline
spending...
which is
bearish... but
AT&T (T),
I'm bullish on
because they
raised their
dividend...
(cutting back
their) wireline
spending in
December and
January...
hmmm... AT&T has
also said that
it expects to
slash capital
expenditures in
2009... we'll
hear more about
that in January.
These spending
cuts are now
priced in the
CIEN's stock,
though... so,
with that over
with, I think
it'll move
higher on any
big contract
wins... or if
there's any
chance that
telco spending
would increase
next year...
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
Next up is
Tellabs Inc.
(TLAB)...
Here is $3.30 in
cash, no debt,
and the stock is
at $3.94...
what's wrong
with this
picture?...
This one is also
in the telco
food chain,
which now feels
like it has
salmonella...
TLAB has
suffered while
the telco
companies froze
spending, but it
should thrive
again once they
start
spending...
Tellabs Inc.
(TLAB)
makes digital
crossconnects,
broadband access
equipment... you
can see all of
this stuff on
the website...
routers...
getting 40% of
its sales from
businesses
related to
wireless
backhaul...
upgrading our
data
infrastructure
to keep up with
increasing
demands for
bandwidth. The
wireless
backhaul should
begin in late
2009, and
ultimately lead
to 15 to 20%
growth in
broadband and
markets over the
next three
years... this is
what TLAB is a
play on...
Analysts
estimate traffic
from wireless
data, video over
Internet, and
enterprises are
growing at over
40 to 60%!... We
need more
bandwidth. TLAB
provides it.
The company has
had some decent
news lately. No
one seems to
care...
TLAB had a
positive analyst
day on November
14 and announced
a new contract
with British
Telecom, and
reiterated its
fourth-quarter
guidance...
didn't slice
it... but the
stock still fell
2% the next
trading day...
Hey listen, I
think that this
stock is as
close to having
no downside as
I've ever seen
because of that
cash flow...
remember, we
like stocks that
are trading at
or near cash...
real potential
for upside...
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
The last member
of this motley
crew is
Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS)...
Break open your
cell phone and
Skyworks
Solutions falls
out...
This is a four
dollar and
change name...
it's a play on
smart phones...
It designs and
manufactures
high-performance
circuits and
semiconductors
used in mobile
phones and in
broadband
markets... I
know... that
market installed
right now... it
can roar
again...
Skyworks makes
the power
amplifiers you
find inside a
smart phone...
you know,
they're using 3G
or 2G
technology...
and these
amplifiers
strengthen the
signal...
allowing faster
downloads for
data, web
content, and
video... I mean,
really, come
on... it's in
the iPhone...
Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS)
reported an
upbeat fiscal
fourth-quarter
on November 6...
but then
Cramer-fave,
David Aldrich,
reduced its
fourth-quarter
guidance on
December 1...
and that led the
stock to hit a
fresh 52-week
low on December
3.
The Street's
consensus 2009
earnings per
share estimate
has come down to
$.16 from $.23 a
month ago. As
fewer smart
phones have been
built, the
suppliers like
them Skyworks...
well they have
taken a beat
down...
But now I think
that all the bad
news is already
reflected in the
stock and, with
a market that's
already favoring
tech...
especially
gadget tech... I
think Skyworks
is much better
than Texas
instruments...
much better than
National
Semiconductor...
The company is
also
diversifying
away from the
handset
business. A
quarter of its
sales are coming
from its linear
segment...
that's a real
pastiche, if not
a mosaic, of a
business... that
makes wireless
infrastructure
for defense,
industrial
satellites, and
energy
companies... so,
of course, it's
not totally
captive to the
whims of the
cell phone
market...
Aldrich has
steered
comebacks
before. Let's
bet on him
again.
Here's the
bottom line...
▼ ▼
▼ ▼
▼
The Bottom Line!:
CIENA Corp. (CIEN),
Tellabs Inc.
(TLAB),
Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS)...
they've gotten
crushed beyond what
the rest of tech has
endured. They've all
kind of
pre-announced and
told you things are
already bad... It
tech is bottoming,
and it's really at
hand, we're going to
get a January
effect, where these
stocks rebound,
after the heavy
tax-loss selling
they are all
experiencing. These
three single-digit
names should come
roaring back come
January, and there's
very little
downside, and I mean
it, because of the
cash.
[verbatim recap]
Read Jim's next Segment
here
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