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  Opening Segment #1:
The Real Deal?
  Wednesday, October 8, 2014



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   Jim's Quotes from this segment:  

Relief rally or real deal? That's what you have to ask about. Any rally that starts because the Federal Reserve released minutes that show the Fed isn't likely to raise rates soon, because of worries about a global slowdown... I mean, the Fed's sensitivity to recent weaker data did trigger the powerful move up today. It was the strongest of the year, where the Dow soared 275 points.


Jim:    Why? Because it contradicts the prevailing wisdom that the Fed is now somehow on autopilot to take rates higher, no matter what. The rally was all-encompassing. It took up every major stock, every major group. But here's the problem with putting too much stock in one day's rally, so to speak. If you're a bull, it's terrific to know that the Fed isn't going to do something stupid. It's fabulous to know that the Fed is turning a deaf ear to those hedge fund managers who constantly come on TV, or are calling for much higher rates to teach reckless borrowers a lesson. It's fantastic that our central bankers don't have the same desires as most of these strident hedge fund managers who seem to want to trigger a nasty recession, that drives stocks down and creates havoc in the heavily-shorted bond market, in order to make a lot of money.

However, the problems that many of our companies are facing right now are simply beyond the purview of the Fed, which makes you, upon further review by the overseas markets tonight and tomorrow, skeptical of its staying power. We're not in charge, man. It's all those other places. Or to put it in stock terms, we need more Alcoas... which delivered a very good quarter tonight... and fewer Ford Motors... which told a story last week of a worldwide slowdown that causes us to be suspicious of any domestic move like today.

So what's vulnerable, and what isn't?...

I remain very concerned that the whole commodity complex, and anything that it touches, is on the ropes. We saw a huge turn today intraday, when the Fed made its move. Oil and gas stocks that are in the S&P 500 went up. But I think that was caused by the powerful pull of hedge fund managers who had been shorting the S&P aggressively, and suddenly they had to switch directions, or get overrun by the largest day in the year.

The collapse in the price of oil, though, continues. It's continued right into today, and I think these stocks are merely being given a nice reprieve. The earnings estimates are too high, and will be slashed.

Here's the bottom line...

▼   ▼   ▼   ▼   ▼

We've had big declines ahead of the earnings, betting that they'll be more like the hideous Ford Motor guide down than the sweet Alcoa guide up. The bulls have to hope that today's rally came because we have finally discounted the negatives with these big declines that led up to yesterday's crushing. The bears? They need more Fords. Somehow, I think they will get more of them than we expect after a strong day like today.

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[end of segment]

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[end of segment]

*Note:  An asterisk next to a stock indicates that Jim owns it currently for his charitable trust.  If you are interested in a particular stock, Jim Cramer recommends that you always do the homework on each stock, and that you wait at least one trading week after his show recommendation to evaluate whether it is a good stock trade or investment for you. 

Market Results today:

Dow:  + 275

Nasdaq:  + 83

S&P 500:  + 34


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